Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T08:56:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
1C 0x1cd9…9dbe crypto 57 markets active 0h ago coverage 119d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$87 (+7%) realized +$86 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate65%35W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$70
7 days+$70
14 days+$70
30 days+$70
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% +$70
other 1% $0
sports 1% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 +2.3% -7.5% 70% 52% -4.2%
≤30d 40 +2.3% -7.5% 70% 52% -4.2%
≤90d 40 +2.3% -7.5% 70% 52% -4.2%
all 54 -2.1% -11.4% 65% 52% -5.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 52% -5.1%
10% -19.9% 43% -14.2%
15% -27.6% 33% -22.5%
20% -34.7% 24% -30.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$10 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.32 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

119d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized+$86
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses35 / 19
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)54 / 57
History coverage119d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 54 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Down 69¢ 72¢ $25 $26 +$1 (+5%)
Will Morocco be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $7 $7 −$1 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 24 $76 +$6 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 24 $76 +$35 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 24 $62 +$34 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 24 $102 −$50 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 24 $25 −$25 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 24 $5 +$4 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 24 $5 +$6 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 24 $101 +$10 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 24 $56 +$4 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 24 $51 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 24 $50 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 24 $51 −$22 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 24 $5 +$5 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 24 $5 +$5 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 24 $50 +$9 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 24 $31 +$7 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 24 $26 +$13 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 24 $25 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 23 $25 +$5 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 23 $76 +$15 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 23 $56 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 23 $26 +$6 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 23 $10 +$2 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 23 $52 +$15 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 23 $26 +$12 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$6 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$4 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$8 +144%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 23 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 23 $51 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 23 $25 +$6 +24%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -97%
Trail Blazers vs. Bulls Feb 27 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Feb 27 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Feb 27 $4 −$2 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Feb 27 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Feb 27 $2 +$1 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Feb 27 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Feb 27 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Feb 27 $2 +$2 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Feb 27 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Feb 27 $5 +$3 +57%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $26 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $5 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $50 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET SELL Up 89¢ $29 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $25 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET SELL Down 85¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET SELL Down 86¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET SELL Down 86¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET SELL Down 86¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET SELL Down 86¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET SELL Down 86¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET SELL Down 86¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET SELL Up 62¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $5 1h
Ismael Saibari: 1+ goals AND Morocco vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score AN BUY 7¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $54 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $50 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.90 · official $37.17 · 187 history records