Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T23:27:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
1C 0x1cdc…40d8 other 20 markets active 2h ago coverage 15d
RISKYcopy with care Fading edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$664 (-4%) realized −$664 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +46% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +26% what you keep after slip
Net edge+26%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate65%13W / 7L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$788per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$44est.
Kalshi-fit35%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,973
7 days−$1,227
14 days−$879
30 days−$554
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 77% −$1,157
sports 23% +$604
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)+31.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +17.2% +6.0% 64% 50% -17.2%
≤30d 20 +45.5% +31.7% 65% 55% -12.7%
≤90d 20 +45.5% +31.7% 65% 55% -12.7%
all 20 +45.5% +31.7% 65% 55% -12.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +31.7% 55% -12.7%
10% +19.1% 45% -21.1%
15% +7.6% 40% -28.7%
20% -3.0% 35% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +46% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$1,650) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +109% → late -18% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$214 vs −$476 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$664
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses13 / 7
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$44
Open positions0
Markets (closed)20 / 20
History coverage15d
Avg bet$788
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit35%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 20 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $412 +$101 +24%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $1,498 −$1,421 -95%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $985 −$653 -66%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $2,298 −$903 -39%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $2,032 +$266 +13%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $1,806 +$225 +12%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $1,651 +$157 +10%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 22 $101 −$100 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $1,650 +$102 +6%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $1,094 +$555 +51%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $77 +$80 +104%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $51 +$157 +307%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $608 +$250 +41%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $152 −$43 -28%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Colombia to score first vs. Uzbek Jun 18 $363 +$289 +80%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $374 −$12 -3%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $242 +$132 +55%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $102 +$138 +135%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $206 −$200 -97%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $65 +$326 +504%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 80¢ $412 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 3¢ $77 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? SELL Yes 19¢ $332 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 51¢ $985 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 55¢ $1,498 3h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 52¢ $1,395 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $2,298 2d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $2,299 2d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 88¢ $2,032 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 99¢ $2,031 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 88¢ $1,806 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,808 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $1,651 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 53¢ $101 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 97¢ $1,753 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $1,650 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 99¢ $1,649 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $1,094 4d
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $157 4d
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 65¢ $51 4d
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $27 4d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $51 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 97¢ $858 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $608 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 37¢ $109 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 50¢ $152 6d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Colombia to score first vs. Uzbek BUY 55¢ $363 7d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 70¢ $362 7d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $374 7d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $242 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 41 history records