Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T13:05:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1C
0x1cdd…e595
weather · 434 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$31,216 -154%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1,029 · open +$707
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$31,038
Realized+$1,029
Unrealized+$707
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses143 / 82
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions497
Markets (closed)225 / 434
History coverage1d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day2588.0
Drawdown7%
Kalshi-fit91%
Chart Positions 497 History 225 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,029
7 days+$1,029
14 days+$1,029
30 days+$1,029
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? No 81¢ 87¢ $467 $502 +$35 (+7%)
Will Meta have the #3 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Control On)? No 92¢ 99¢ $340 $366 +$26 (+8%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Yes 46¢ 44¢ $345 $332 −$13 (-4%)
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 30? No 58¢ 50¢ $351 $305 −$45 (-13%)
UAE x Qatar sever diplomatic relations in 2026? No 86¢ 94¢ $246 $269 +$22 (+9%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 4–8%? No 98¢ 100¢ $241 $245 +$4 (+2%)
Will Marine Tondelier be the joint left nominee for the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 12¢ 14¢ $211 $237 +$26 (+12%)
Will Goldman Sachs (GS) Q2 investment banking fees be above $2.6B? No 29¢ 30¢ $223 $228 +$5 (+2%)
Will Morgan Stanley (MS) Q2 investment banking revenue be above $2.35B? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $206 $200 −$6 (-3%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes 39¢ 40¢ $177 $185 +$8 (+5%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 90¢ 90¢ $170 $171 +$1 (+1%)
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14? No 77¢ 78¢ $151 $153 +$2 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 69°F or below on June 12? No 98¢ 100¢ $150 $152 +$2 (+2%)
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Under 59¢ 100¢ $88 $150 +$61 (+69%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 12? No 53¢ 100¢ $80 $149 +$69 (+87%)
Will Julian Alvarez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 95¢ 95¢ $143 $143 −$0 (-0%)
Iran Nuke before 2027? No 90¢ 91¢ $141 $142 +$1 (+1%)
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $140 $140 −$0 (-0%)
Will Oura's market cap be at least $20B at market close on IPO day? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $152 $140 −$12 (-8%)
Will Google Gemini score at least 45% on the FrontierMath Benchmark? Yes 53¢ 33¢ $224 $139 −$85 (-38%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? No 95¢ 95¢ $139 $139 +$0 (+0%)
Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? No 88¢ 88¢ $134 $134 +$0 (+0%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 87¢ 88¢ $132 $133 +$1 (+1%)
Will the Democratic Party win the OH-01 House seat? No 34¢ 28¢ $158 $132 −$26 (-16%)
Iran coup attempt by June 30? No 97¢ 97¢ $131 $132 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series Jun 12 $73 −$3 -4%
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $70 −$3 -5%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs M80 (BO1) - XSE Pro League Group Stage Jun 12 $30 +$7 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $134 +$4 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 12? Jun 12 $72 +$8 +11%
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be at le Jun 12 $86 +$4 +5%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 12 $145 −$47 -32%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $36 −$1 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 12 $178 −$23 -13%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 12 $120 $0 -0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 12 $81 −$7 -9%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju Jun 12 $74 +$34 +46%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 12? Jun 12 $101 +$63 +62%
Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Jun 12 $28 −$13 -47%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 13? Jun 12 $20 −$10 -50%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 12 $26 +$2 +7%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 12 $153 +$3 +2%
Will annual inflation be 4.0% in June? Jun 12 $27 +$3 +11%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 12 $459 +$48 +10%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 12 $114 −$5 -4%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Jun 12 $53 +$7 +12%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 12? Jun 12 $275 +$37 +14%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 12 $127 −$15 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 13? Jun 12 $9 −$4 -42%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 12 $112 +$23 +20%
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? Jun 12 $29 +$11 +36%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 12 $2 +$19 +813%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? Jun 12 $40 +$50 +127%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Jun 12 $47 +$14 +31%
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz Jun 12 $8 −$6 -87%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $185 −$6 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 12? Jun 12 $15 +$5 +30%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $111 +$37 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $139 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 12? Jun 12 $23 +$7 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 12? Jun 12 $39 +$5 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $29 +$1 +5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $979 −$9 -1%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13? Jun 12 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 12? Jun 12 $159 −$10 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 20°C on June 13? Jun 12 $21 −$12 -57%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $160 −$8 -5%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 12 $59 +$1 +2%
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $31 +$11 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June Jun 12 $66 +$4 +6%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 12 $237 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $228 +$15 +7%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European countr Jun 12 $101 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 12? Jun 12 $67 +$3 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $35 +$18 +52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 57% +$646
weather 21% +$210
world 13% +$143
tech 5% +$194
finance 3% +$116
politics 2% +$326
economics 0% +$70
sports 0% +$30
culture 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 12? BUY No 5¢ $1 0m
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 12? BUY No 5¢ $0 0m
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 96-97°F on June 12? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 0m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Italy? BUY No 97¢ $29 0m
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 12? BUY No 5¢ $0 0m
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 13? BUY Yes 24¢ $4 0m
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 13? BUY Yes 24¢ $7 0m
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 13? BUY No 75¢ $3 0m
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 12? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 0m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 0m
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 12? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 0m
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 96-97°F on June 12? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 0m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 52¢ $16 0m
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 12? BUY No 95¢ $16 0m
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 12? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 1m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 13? BUY No 67¢ $14 1m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on June 12? BUY No 91¢ $27 1m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? BUY No 46¢ $3 1m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? BUY No 46¢ $11 1m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 47¢ $5 1m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 12? BUY No 82¢ $25 1m
Will annual inflation be 4.0% in June? BUY No 84¢ $0 1m
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on BUY Yes 19¢ $6 1m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 13? BUY No 78¢ $23 1m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? BUY Yes 36¢ $11 1m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? BUY No 46¢ $3 1m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C or higher on June 12? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 1m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 26¢ $6 1m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 12? BUY No 83¢ $15 1m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 26¢ $2 1m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+72.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 225 +90.7% +72.5% 64% 38% -3.0%
≤30d 225 +90.7% +72.5% 64% 38% -3.0%
≤90d 225 +90.7% +72.5% 64% 38% -3.0%
all 225 +90.7% +72.5% 64% 38% -3.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2588.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +72.5% 38% -3.0%
10% ← realistic here +56.0% 30% -12.3%
15% +40.9% 23% -20.8%
20% +27.1% 19% -28.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31,038.39 · official $45,833.71 · 3500 history records