Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T04:46:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1C 0x1cde…96e2 sports 164 markets active 0h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$7,688 (-13%) realized −$7,745 · open +$57
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate47%75W / 85L
Whale WR43%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$364per market
Trades / day34.9pace
Fees−$684est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$3,962now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$432
7 days−$8,599
14 days−$8,214
30 days−$8,214
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% −$7,118
other 7% −$1,038
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 147 +2.8% -7.0% 47% 45% -24.0%
≤30d 160 +1.4% -8.3% 47% 45% -22.6%
≤90d 160 +1.4% -8.3% 47% 45% -22.6%
all 160 +1.4% -8.3% 47% 45% -22.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover34.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.3% 45% -22.6%
10% ← realistic here -17.0% 42% -30.0%
15% -25.1% 34% -36.8%
20% -32.4% 28% -43.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 43% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +3% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$224 vs −$295 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$3,962
Realized−$7,745
Unrealized+$57
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses75 / 85
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Est. fees paid−$684
Open positions4
Markets (closed)160 / 164
History coverage8d
Avg bet$364
Trades / day34.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 160 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Spirit 56¢ 56¢ $1,132 $1,122 −$10 (-1%)
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners Boston Red Sox 63¢ 100¢ $319 $506 +$187 (+59%)
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Yangon Galacticos (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Qualifier Playoffs Carstensz 65¢ 93¢ $214 $305 +$90 (+42%)
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Minnesota Twins 41¢ $211 $0 −$211 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 71 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins Jun 20 $247 +$259 +105%
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 20 $171 +$283 +165%
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 20 $200 +$304 +152%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $1,028 −$1,012 -98%
Besiktas vs. Fenerbahce Jun 19 $37 −$36 -99%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 19 $55 +$10 +19%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Zero Tenacity - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $38 +$62 +163%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $329 −$323 -98%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $162 −$160 -99%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 19 $174 +$329 +188%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5 Jun 19 $98 +$121 +124%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 11.5 Jun 19 $323 −$319 -99%
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 18 $165 −$3 -2%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Jun 18 $98 +$132 +134%
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Eva Lys Jun 18 $95 −$93 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $16 +$15 +90%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 9.5 Jun 18 $238 +$271 +114%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1,151 −$1,126 -98%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South Ameri Jun 18 $1,645 +$374 +23%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $236 −$232 -99%
Valorant: STREAMER ARENA vs FUSION (BO3) - VCL Latin America North: Re Jun 17 $9 −$9 -98%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $292 +$89 +31%
Besiktas vs. Fenerbahce Jun 17 $684 +$187 +27%
Paris Basketball vs. Monaco Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Nikola Bartunkova Jun 17 $79 +$188 +238%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $291 −$285 -98%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $411 +$93 +23%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 17 $108 +$24 +22%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast Jun 17 $203 −$200 -98%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 17 $17 −$16 -99%
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 16 $417 +$259 +62%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $97 −$95 -98%
Maccabi Tel-Aviv vs. Hapoel Tel-Aviv Jun 16 $71 −$70 -98%
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Katerina Siniakova Jun 16 $33 −$32 -98%
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo Jun 16 $803 +$220 +27%
Royan: Philip Henning vs Gerard Campana Lee Jun 16 $24 +$72 +307%
HSBC Championships: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 16 $157 +$93 +60%
Dota 2: G-Time vs Hive - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $11 $0 +3%
Dota 2: G-Time vs Hive - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $12 $0 +3%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $12 +$7 +59%
Khachanov vs. Quinn: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 16 $55 +$45 +83%
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 16 $349 −$342 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $698 −$684 -98%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 16 $317 +$189 +60%
Royan: Yanki Erel vs Ryo Tabata Jun 16 $56 −$55 -99%
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 16 $1,147 −$1,132 -99%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 11.5 Jun 16 $234 −$230 -98%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 10.5 Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bu vs. Virtanen: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 16 $524 −$18 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Yangon Galacticos (BO3) - The International South SELL Carstensz 73¢ $529 19m
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Yangon Galacticos (BO3) - The International South BUY Carstensz 71¢ $520 20m
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Yangon Galacticos (BO3) - The International South BUY Carstensz 57¢ $95 54m
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Boston Red Sox 63¢ $323 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 56¢ $1,147 2h
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Minnesota Twins 41¢ $215 2h
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Detroit Tigers 39¢ $200 4h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 50¢ $1,028 4h
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins BUY Miami Marlins 48¢ $247 4h
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 37¢ $171 4h
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Yangon Galacticos (BO3) - The International South BUY Carstensz 49¢ $81 9h
Besiktas vs. Fenerbahce BUY Besiktas 51¢ $37 9h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 17¢ $21 14h
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Zero Tenacity - Game 2 Winner BUY Zero Tenacity 38¢ $38 14h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 30¢ $308 14h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 84¢ $49 14h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 84¢ $6 14h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 61¢ $162 25h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 11.5 BUY Under 63¢ $323 28h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 44¢ $98 29h
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies SELL Philadelphia Phillies 32¢ $119 29h
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies SELL Philadelphia Phillies 32¢ $16 29h
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies SELL Philadelphia Phillies 32¢ $16 29h
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies SELL Philadelphia Phillies 32¢ $6 29h
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies SELL Philadelphia Phillies 32¢ $2 29h
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies SELL Philadelphia Phillies 33¢ $2 29h
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 32¢ $165 29h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY Chicago White Sox 34¢ $174 29h
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Eva Lys BUY Eva Lys 18¢ $95 42h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $16 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,962.49 · official $3,964.03 (match) · 348 history records