Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:28:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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1C 0x1cde…dec9 crypto 1234 markets active 22h ago coverage 24d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 24d only
✗ bot/MM pace (135 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$131 (-9%) realized −$131 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate19%210W / 874L
Drawdown86%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day134.6pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$180
7 days−$148
14 days−$133
30 days+$29
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 91% +$172
other 9% +$36
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (135 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-26.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 359 -77.7% -79.8% 12% 11% -59.2%
≤30d 1084 -19.0% -26.7% 19% 19% -17.8%
≤90d 1084 -19.0% -26.7% 19% 19% -17.8%
all 1084 -19.0% -26.7% 19% 19% -17.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover134.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -26.7% 19% -17.8%
10% ← realistic here -33.7% 18% -25.7%
15% -40.1% 18% -32.9%
20% -46.0% 16% -39.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -25% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$1 · ×4.32 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$131
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses210 / 874
Open positions48
Markets (closed)1084 / 1234
History coverage24d ⚠
Avg bet$1
Trades / day134.6
Drawdown86%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 48 History 1084 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 50¢ 18¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-63%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 14¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+725%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 13¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+671%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 12¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+605%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 8¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+383%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 7¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+299%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 6¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+239%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 4¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+137%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+59%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+41%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+35%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-1%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-1%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-19%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-49%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-61%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-61%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-61%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-67%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-67%)
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-73%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-73%)
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-73%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-73%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 452 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 19, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 21, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 21, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 22, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 20, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 22, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 21, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 23, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 23, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 23, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 23, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 19, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 20, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 19, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 20, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 18, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 21, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will Peru win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 19, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 21, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 22, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 21, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 19, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 20, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET SELL Down 20¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.03 · official $1.03 (match) · 3500 history records