Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T12:39:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1C 0x1ce2…3c96 other 93 markets active 1h ago coverage 266d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$19,925 (-3%) realized −$18,839 · open −$1,086
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate46%36W / 42L
Whale WR70%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7,073per market
Trades / day5.1pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$3,321now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$767
14 days+$709
30 days+$609
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 71% −$2,121
crypto 16% +$3,662
other 7% −$7,278
sports 3% −$12,289
tech 1% −$2,853
economics 1% +$1,030
world 0% −$306
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +743.5% +663.1% 100% 100% +663.1%
≤30d 9 +56.1% +41.2% 44% 33% -4.9%
≤90d 11 +55.0% +40.3% 55% 45% -0.3%
all 78 -4.7% -13.8% 46% 18% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.1 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.8% 18% -12.3%
10% ← realistic here -22.0% 15% -20.7%
15% -29.5% 14% -28.3%
20% -36.5% 10% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
61% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 70% (≥$2,000) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -30% → late +21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$343 vs −$766 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

266d coverage
Net worth$3,321
Realized−$18,839
Unrealized−$1,086
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses36 / 42
Whale WR (big bets)70%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions15
Markets (closed)78 / 93
History coverage266d
Avg bet$7,073
Trades / day5.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 78 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 79¢ 74¢ $790 $735 −$55 (-7%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Yes 28¢ 30¢ $495 $531 +$36 (+7%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 8¢ 4¢ $800 $429 −$371 (-46%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? No 43¢ 38¢ $344 $308 −$36 (-10%)
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 37¢ 36¢ $296 $292 −$4 (-1%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Yes 50¢ 46¢ $299 $279 −$20 (-7%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes 55¢ 46¢ $220 $186 −$34 (-15%)
Will GameStop acquire eBay? Yes 17¢ 12¢ $204 $150 −$54 (-26%)
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? Yes 67¢ 43¢ $215 $137 −$77 (-36%)
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 7¢ 1¢ $507 $111 −$395 (-78%)
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? Yes 38¢ 32¢ $76 $65 −$11 (-14%)
Will Olivia Dean have a #1 hit in the US in June? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $62 $61 −$1 (-2%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 6¢ 1¢ $85 $20 −$65 (-76%)
Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $6 $9 +$3 (+50%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $8 $6 −$2 (-19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 34 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $103 +$767 +744%
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 12 $535 −$520 -97%
Will any other model be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? Jun 12 $137 −$133 -97%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $388 +$112 +29%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $318 +$182 +57%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee Jun 10 $546 −$171 -31%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? Jun 10 $7,064 +$495 +7%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $2,853 −$24 -1%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $104 −$100 -96%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 20 $1,054 +$387 +37%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? May 14 $626 +$399 +64%
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $15 mi Feb 16 $168 +$2,218 +1320%
Will the Logan Paul 1st Edition Charizard sale price be over 1m? Feb 16 $1,926 −$1,910 -99%
EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch? Feb 12 $500 −$500 -100%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Feb 06 $350 +$1,244 +355%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 04 $109 −$40 -36%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Jan 31 $303 +$13 +4%
First to 5k: Gold or ETH? Jan 26 $334 +$262 +79%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 22 $31 −$6 -18%
Will Sarah Knafo win the Paris mayor election? Jan 22 $1,116 −$1,116 -100%
Football.Fun FDV above $200M one day after launch? Jan 15 $236 −$236 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 05 $613 −$613 -100%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Jan 03 $3,106 +$1,175 +38%
Opinion FDV above $1B one day after launch? Jan 01 $6 −$6 -100%
Opinion FDV above $3B one day after launch? Jan 01 $4 −$4 -100%
Opinion FDV above $2B one day after launch? Jan 01 $21 −$21 -100%
Will SOL flip ETH in 2025? Jan 01 $1,499 +$39 +3%
Will Solana reach $260 before 2026? Jan 01 $3,949 +$273 +7%
Hyperliquid all time high by December 31? Jan 01 $1,454 +$565 +39%
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? Dec 29 $213 −$213 -100%
VOOI FDV above $200M one day after launch? Dec 18 $57 −$57 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 16 $53 −$53 -100%
USDT depeg in 2025? Dec 16 $194 −$183 -94%
Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by December 31? Dec 13 $10,691 +$1,698 +16%
Over $400M committed to the Monad public sale? Nov 19 $4,080 −$4,080 -100%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? Nov 18 $9,477 −$9,477 -100%
Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31? Nov 18 $394 $0 +0%
Backpack FDV above $1B one day after launch? Nov 18 $203 −$203 -100%
EdgeX FDV above $2B one day after launch? Nov 17 $348 −$348 -100%
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 15 $216 −$216 -100%
Will Pope Leo XIV be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Nov 15 $1,138 −$1,138 -100%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 15 $68 −$68 -100%
Will Solana dip to $140 in November? Nov 15 $280 +$220 +79%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 10 $1,078 −$78 -7%
TikTok sale announced in 2025? Nov 08 $1,146 −$46 -4%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? Nov 06 $70 −$70 -100%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 05 $422,000 −$474 -0%
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31? Nov 05 $439 −$439 -100%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Nov 05 $92 −$92 -100%
Kraken IPO in 2025? Nov 05 $92 −$92 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 37¢ $296 2h
Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 7h
Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 10h
Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 19h
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? BUY Yes 38¢ $78 31h
Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 46h
Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 46h
Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 46h
Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 46h
Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 46h
Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 46h
Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 46h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 28¢ $495 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 8¢ $800 2d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 79¢ $798 2d
Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 43¢ $344 3d
Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 4d
Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 4d
Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 4d
Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 4d
Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 4d
Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 4d
Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 4d
Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $299 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 55¢ $220 5d
Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 5d
Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,320.84 · official $3,321.84 (match) · 1632 history records