Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T00:37:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
1C 0x1ce3…2317 other 175 markets active 2h ago coverage 20d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$937 (+3%) realized +$1,158 · open −$221
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate55%69W / 56L
Whale WR93%big bets
Drawdown49%max
Avg bet$163per market
Trades / day20.4pace
Fees−$98est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$4,213now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$147
7 days+$1,560
14 days+$1,171
30 days+$1,243
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 53% +$1,554
other 36% −$107
world 7% −$507
crypto 3% +$85
culture 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 57 -2.6% -11.9% 54% 37% -1.8%
≤30d 125 +0.8% -8.8% 55% 45% -3.9%
≤90d 125 +0.8% -8.8% 55% 45% -3.9%
all 125 +0.8% -8.8% 55% 45% -3.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.8% 45% -3.9%
10% ← realistic here -17.6% 30% -13.1%
15% -25.5% 22% -21.5%
20% -32.8% 14% -29.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 93% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +9% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$47 vs −$36 · ×1.31 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.62 per $1 lost it wins $1.62
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$4,213
Realized+$1,158
Unrealized−$221
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses69 / 56
Whale WR (big bets)93%
Est. fees paid−$98
Open positions30
Markets (closed)125 / 175
History coverage20d
Avg bet$163
Trades / day20.4
Drawdown49%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 30 History 125 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 44¢ 44¢ $400 $405 +$5 (+1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 60¢ 62¢ $340 $348 +$8 (+2%)
Will France reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 43¢ 47¢ $300 $328 +$28 (+9%)
Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 86¢ $200 $239 +$39 (+20%)
Will England reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 75¢ 85¢ $200 $227 +$27 (+13%)
Will Germany reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 71¢ 79¢ $200 $223 +$23 (+11%)
Will Morocco reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 43¢ 42¢ $217 $209 −$8 (-3%)
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026? No 70¢ 72¢ $200 $205 +$5 (+2%)
Will Brazil reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 73¢ 69¢ $215 $204 −$11 (-5%)
Will Russia enter Sloviansk by December 31, 2026? No 78¢ 79¢ $200 $203 +$3 (+1%)
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? No 74¢ 74¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Will Russia enter Dopropillia by December 31, 2026? No 62¢ 59¢ $200 $191 −$9 (-5%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $360 $180 −$180 (-50%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $200 $163 −$37 (-19%)
Will Kylian Mbappé win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 22¢ $97 $159 +$62 (+64%)
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 76¢ 99¢ $100 $130 +$30 (+30%)
Will Norway be the highest-scoring team in Group I during the Group Stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 40¢ 30¢ $157 $117 −$40 (-26%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 46¢ 52¢ $100 $112 +$12 (+12%)
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $100 $96 −$4 (-4%)
Will Brazil be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? Yes 30¢ 20¢ $99 $66 −$33 (-34%)
Will Harry Kane win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 6¢ $71 $45 −$26 (-37%)
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Colombia 8¢ 8¢ $37 $35 −$2 (-6%)
Will Germany be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? Yes 35¢ 42¢ $28 $33 +$5 (+19%)
Will Messi and Ronaldo Shake Hands During World Cup? Yes 36¢ 35¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-3%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31? No 29¢ 14¢ $50 $23 −$27 (-53%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $51 +$28 +54%
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $15 +$93 +603%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $103 −$11 -11%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $51 −$7 -13%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $617 +$12 +2%
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion? Jun 25 $202 +$36 +18%
Will Portugal be the highest-scoring team in Group K during the Group Jun 25 $436 +$21 +5%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by August 31? Jun 25 $52 −$10 -20%
Will Netherlands reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $203 +$4 +2%
Will France be the highest-scoring team in Group I during the Group St Jun 25 $35 −$2 -7%
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $202 +$101 +50%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 4.5 Jun 25 $1,002 +$61 +6%
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 25 $10 −$6 -62%
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 25 $102 −$100 -98%
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 Jun 24 $1,906 +$222 +12%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Jun 24 $1,306 +$214 +16%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $300 +$28 +9%
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 1 - 0 Qatar? Jun 24 $31 −$30 -98%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $302 −$300 -99%
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 2 Croatia? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-3 be the exact series outcome? Jun 24 $257 −$257 -100%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by December 31? Jun 24 $16 −$8 -52%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $503 +$99 +20%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $101 −$16 -16%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? Jun 23 $404 +$52 +13%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 23 $302 +$59 +20%
U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027? Jun 23 $301 −$6 -2%
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo Jun 23 $36 +$29 +81%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 6.5 Jun 23 $502 +$79 +16%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? Jun 23 $102 −$53 -52%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $1,002 +$54 +5%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $503 +$106 +21%
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 1 Senegal? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: France (-4.5) Jun 22 $703 +$49 +7%
Spread: France (-5.5) Jun 22 $602 +$46 +8%
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $11 −$2 -19%
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $244 +$107 +44%
Will Uruguay win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $103 −$24 -23%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 6.5 Jun 22 $1,803 +$112 +6%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $1,003 +$119 +12%
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Jun 21 $503 +$129 +26%
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $103 +$11 +10%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 IR Iran? Jun 21 $41 −$2 -5%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 0 IR Iran? Jun 21 $15 −$3 -19%
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $136 +$49 +36%
Will Saudi Arabia win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $31 −$30 -99%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 6.5 Jun 21 $982 +$173 +18%
Spread: Spain (-5.5) Jun 21 $202 +$136 +67%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 81¢ $107 1h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 29¢ $79 4h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 35¢ $108 4h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $92 4h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $45 4h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $289 4h
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion? SELL Yes 89¢ $238 4h
Will Portugal be the highest-scoring team in Group K during the Group SELL Yes 86¢ $458 4h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by August 31? SELL No 4¢ $4 4h
Will Messi and Ronaldo Shake Hands During World Cup? BUY Yes 36¢ $31 12h
Will Morocco reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 43¢ $221 13h
Will Netherlands reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 60¢ $171 13h
Will Netherlands reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 60¢ $35 14h
Will France be the highest-scoring team in Group I during the Group St SELL No 46¢ $32 15h
Will France be the highest-scoring team in Group I during the Group St BUY No 48¢ $35 15h
Will Norway be the highest-scoring team in Group I during the Group St BUY Yes 40¢ $0 15h
Will Norway be the highest-scoring team in Group I during the Group St BUY Yes 40¢ $6 15h
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 100¢ $303 21h
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 100¢ $1,063 21h
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 21h
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 21h
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 94¢ $1,002 22h
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 0 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 40¢ $102 22h
Will Norway be the highest-scoring team in Group I during the Group St BUY Yes 38¢ $1 22h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 4¢ $4 22h
Will Spain be the highest-scoring team in Group H during the Group Sta BUY Yes 93¢ $47 22h
Will Spain be the highest-scoring team in Group H during the Group Sta BUY Yes 91¢ $1 22h
Will Spain be the highest-scoring team in Group H during the Group Sta BUY Yes 89¢ $38 22h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 8¢ $4 24h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 60¢ $344 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,213.37 · official $4,214.00 (match) · 447 history records