Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:55:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
1C 0x1ce5…ea25 sports 67 markets active 1h ago coverage 13d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$107 (+4%) realized +$95 · open +$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate70%46W / 20L
Drawdown87%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day10.1pace
Fees−$28est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$52now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$68
7 days−$29
14 days+$142
30 days+$142
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% +$127
other 7% +$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 -5.1% -14.1% 66% 54% -11.1%
≤30d 66 +1.5% -8.2% 70% 58% -4.8%
≤90d 66 +1.5% -8.2% 70% 58% -4.8%
all 66 +1.5% -8.2% 70% 58% -4.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.2% 58% -4.8%
10% -17.0% 44% -13.9%
15% -25.0% 26% -22.3%
20% -32.3% 20% -29.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$29 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.25 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$52
Realized+$95
Unrealized+$12
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses46 / 20
Est. fees paid−$28
Open positions1
Markets (closed)66 / 67
History coverage13d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day10.1
Drawdown87%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 66 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Spirit 68¢ 89¢ $40 $52 +$12 (+31%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $41 +$18 +44%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 19 $51 +$12 +23%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $51 +$45 +88%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $25 −$8 -32%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $51 +$35 +69%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $25 +$15 +58%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $52 −$12 -23%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $35 −$23 -65%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $30 +$17 +56%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $30 +$14 +47%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $28 −$28 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $29 +$7 +25%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $59 +$61 +103%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $30 −$11 -37%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $20 +$17 +84%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $51 +$18 +35%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $25 +$7 +29%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $28 −$28 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $51 −$51 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $50 +$4 +9%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $25 +$6 +22%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $50 +$9 +17%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $61 +$9 +15%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $41 +$7 +18%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $101 +$3 +3%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $20 +$9 +45%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $31 +$22 +71%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $99 +$7 +7%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $20 +$3 +15%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $41 +$1 +2%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $20 +$2 +11%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $20 +$1 +3%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $41 +$12 +29%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $51 +$10 +20%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $30 −$30 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $18 −$18 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $71 −$71 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $30 +$12 +38%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $20 +$5 +25%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $51 +$44 +87%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $51 +$15 +30%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $37 +$5 +14%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $51 +$18 +35%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $20 −$15 -75%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $101 −$101 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $41 −$2 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 64¢ $25 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL Spirit 100¢ $58 1h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof SELL Paper Rex 100¢ $62 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 68¢ $41 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner SELL G2 100¢ $96 3h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 52¢ $51 3h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 80¢ $51 4h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 76¢ $15 8h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL FURIA 53¢ $17 24h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 75¢ $25 25h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Aurora Gaming 100¢ $85 26h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 100¢ $40 27h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 61¢ $25 27h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 62¢ $25 27h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 55¢ $25 40h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 40h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 46¢ $26 41h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $22 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $24 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 97¢ $23 2d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 11¢ $3 2d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 50¢ $16 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 38¢ $16 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 64¢ $28 2d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 19¢ $9 2d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 38¢ $18 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $30 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $30 3d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $37 3d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 78¢ $29 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $52.33 · official $52.33 (match) · 148 history records