Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:42:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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1C 0x1cea…d40f crypto 318 markets active 0h ago coverage 19d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$129 (-5%) realized −$129 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate80%253W / 64L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day25.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$64
7 days−$31
14 days−$122
30 days−$128
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$128
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 150 +5.1% -4.9% 89% 58% -11.5%
≤30d 317 -2.9% -12.1% 80% 57% -14.4%
≤90d 317 -2.9% -12.1% 80% 57% -14.4%
all 317 -2.9% -12.1% 80% 57% -14.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.1% 57% -14.4%
10% ← realistic here -20.6% 33% -22.6%
15% -28.2% 9% -30.1%
20% -35.3% 3% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$8 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized−$129
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses253 / 64
Open positions1
Markets (closed)317 / 318
History coverage19d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day25.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 317 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Up 91¢ 90¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 63 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 17 $25 +$8 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 17 $51 +$11 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 17 $25 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 17 $51 +$13 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $25 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $25 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $50 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $50 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $50 −$50 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $25 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $51 −$50 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 17 $25 +$5 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $51 +$11 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $50 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$3 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$3 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$4 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$4 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$2 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$2 +17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $25 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $25 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $25 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $25 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $25 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $25 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $25 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $25 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $25 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $25 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $25 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $25 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $25 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $25 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $25 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $25 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $25 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $25 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $5 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $5 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.59 · official $24.86 (match) · 739 history records