Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T00:30:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
1C 0x1ceb…ffea other 6 markets active 2h ago coverage 9d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$42 (-22%) realized −$43 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%2W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$101now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13
7 days−$32
14 days−$41
30 days−$41
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 88% −$33
sports 12% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-35.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -10.7% -19.2% 50% 50% -46.1%
≤30d 5 -28.5% -35.3% 40% 40% -52.1%
≤90d 5 -28.5% -35.3% 40% 40% -52.1%
all 5 -28.5% -35.3% 40% 40% -52.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -35.3% 40% -52.1%
10% -41.5% 40% -56.7%
15% -47.2% 40% -60.9%
20% -52.3% 40% -64.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 75% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -47% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt -47% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$21 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$101
Realized−$43
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses2 / 3
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)5 / 6
History coverage9d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 67¢ 68¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $15 +$16 +105%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $10 +$5 +52%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $61 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $40 1h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 26h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $15 47h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 65¢ $10 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $51 6d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 31¢ $10 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $100.73 · official $100.73 (match) · 9 history records