Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T06:40:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1C 0x1ceb…b8f4 crypto 105 markets active 4d ago coverage 1d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 1d only
✗ bot/MM pace (2979 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$240 (+2%) realized +$240 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +465% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +335% what you keep after slip
Net edge+335%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate52%80W / 73L
Drawdown65%max
Avg bet$125per market
Trades / day2979.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$219
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (2979 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)+411.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 153 +465.0% +411.2% 52% 39% -10.5%
≤30d 153 +465.0% +411.2% 52% 39% -10.5%
≤90d 153 +465.0% +411.2% 52% 39% -10.5%
all 153 +465.0% +411.2% 52% 39% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2979.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +411.2% 39% -10.5%
10% ← realistic here +362.3% 30% -19.1%
15% +317.6% 25% -26.9%
20% +276.6% 25% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +465% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +24% → late +900% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
28.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$13 · ×1.82 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.99 per $1 lost it wins $1.99
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized+$240
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses80 / 73
Open positions0
Markets (closed)153 / 105
History coverage1d ⚠
Avg bet$125
Trades / day2979.0
Drawdown65%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 153 Trades
no open positions (51 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 29 $1 −$72 -13411%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 29 $0 −$25 -5075%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 29 $0 −$22 -4844%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 29 $0 −$4 -1584%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 29 $0 −$124 -48510%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 29 $0 +$140 +102040%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 29 $0 +$65 +90704%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 29 $0 +$81 +75367%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 29 $0 −$32 -13156%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 29 $0 +$44 +258645%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 29 $0 +$12 +4069%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 29 $0 +$86 +147642%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 29 $0 +$28 +21117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 29 $0 +$18 +23102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 29 $0 +$28 +302938%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 29 $0 +$24 +198821%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 29 $0 +$1 +2505%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 29 $0 +$71 +198715%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 29 $0 +$11 +14478%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 29 $0 +$164 +1035040%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 29 $0 +$5 +1360%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 29 $0 +$2 +1424%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 29 $0 +$100 +177846%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 29 $0 +$34 +124450%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 29 $0 +$44 +73026%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 29 $0 +$36 +41785%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 29 $0 −$7 -1988%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 29 $0 +$4 +1362%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 29 $0 +$54 +29629%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 29 $0 +$30 +309188%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 29 $0 +$42 +47732%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 29 $0 +$79 +786103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 29 $0 +$36 +466478%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 29 $0 +$2 +1044%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 29 $0 +$7 +22922%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 29 $0 −$2 -554%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 29 $0 +$17 +19002%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 29 $0 −$68 -16968%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 29 $0 +$34 +228443%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 29 $0 +$60 +662721%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 29 $0 +$36 +169019%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 29 $0 +$55 +2052248%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 29 $0 +$53 +17086%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 29 $0 −$23 -25469%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 29 $0 $0 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 29 $0 +$13 +18236%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 29 $0 +$34 +141820%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 29 $0 +$3 +1336%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 25 $37 −$14 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 25 $34 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $6 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $7 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $7 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $11 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $6 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $8 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $8 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $8 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $8 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $7 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $7 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $6 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $2 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.15 · official $0.00 · 3500 history records