Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:35:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
1C 0x1cef…71b4 sports 277 markets active 2d ago coverage 106d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$3,091 (-1%) realized −$3,091 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%124W / 153L
Whale WR47%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$942per market
Trades / day7.1pace
Fees−$1,750est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$682
7 days−$3,249
14 days−$4,331
30 days−$723
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% −$5,977
other 2% +$1,247
crypto 0% +$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-14.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 75 -9.6% -18.2% 41% 41% -14.9%
≤30d 194 -2.8% -12.0% 46% 46% -8.5%
≤90d 194 -2.8% -12.0% 46% 46% -8.5%
all 277 -4.9% -14.0% 45% 45% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.0% 45% -10.6%
10% -22.2% 43% -19.1%
15% -29.7% 42% -26.9%
20% -36.6% 39% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 47% (≥$1,000) neutral
Persistence
early -5% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$941 vs −$793 · ×1.19 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

106d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3,091
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses124 / 153
Whale WR (big bets)47%
Est. fees paid−$1,750
Open positions0
Markets (closed)277 / 277
History coverage106d
Avg bet$942
Trades / day7.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 277 Trades
no open positions (75 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Halle Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 15 $694 −$682 -98%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $206 −$22 -11%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $1,979 −$1,462 -74%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $1,294 −$1,276 -99%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $101 +$48 +48%
ITF Cuiaba: Antonia Rivera vs Carolina Alves Jun 15 $2,932 −$1,698 -58%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $427 −$420 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $254 −$250 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $507 −$500 -99%
ITF San Gregorio: Nadia Podoroska vs Lucciana Perez Alarcon Jun 14 $812 +$727 +90%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -90%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $254 −$212 -83%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $507 −$331 -65%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $344 −$127 -37%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Rinky Hijikata vs Marcos Giron Jun 14 $865 +$1,141 +132%
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur Jun 14 $1,319 +$614 +47%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 14 $610 +$776 +127%
HSBC Championships: Donna Vekic vs Emma Raducanu Jun 14 $163 −$159 -98%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Katie Volynets vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 14 $253 +$189 +75%
Halle Open, Qualification: Lorenzo Sonego vs Nikoloz Basilashvili Jun 14 $1,266 +$961 +76%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Zachary Svajda vs Martin Damm Jun 14 $6 +$4 +66%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Anna Blinkova vs Anna Bondar Jun 14 $507 −$277 -54%
Halle Open, Qualification: Raphael Collignon vs Roberto Bautista Agut Jun 14 $1,016 −$521 -51%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $505 +$252 +50%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $254 +$327 +129%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $305 +$334 +109%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $152 +$42 +27%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $152 −$150 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $152 −$150 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $354 +$238 +67%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $508 +$578 +114%
Modena: Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva vs Katarzyna Kawa Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Iva Jovic Jun 13 $611 +$971 +159%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Viktorija Golubic vs Veronika Erjavec Jun 13 $408 −$400 -98%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Alicia Dudeney vs Yulia Putintseva Jun 13 $317 +$341 +108%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Daniel Evans vs Marcos Giron Jun 13 $408 −$400 -98%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Dino Prizmic vs Rinky Hijikata Jun 13 $375 −$172 -46%
Ilkley: Mary Stoiana vs Celine Naef Jun 13 $254 −$174 -69%
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Donna Vekic Jun 13 $679 +$558 +82%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $332 −$330 -100%
Everton de Viña del Mar vs. CD Palestino: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $253 −$32 -13%
Audax CS Italiano vs. CD La Serena: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $253 −$250 -99%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $304 −$300 -99%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $1,315 +$814 +62%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $413 −$406 -98%
Cattolica: Dusan Lajovic vs Oriol Roca Batalla Jun 12 $223 −$24 -11%
ITF Tokyo: Hikaru Sato vs Yuno Kitahara Jun 12 $599 −$386 -65%
Tucuman: Thiago Cigarran vs Juan Estevez Jun 11 $152 +$181 +119%
Mexico vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $101 +$60 +59%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $152 +$83 +54%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Halle Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Daniel Altmaier BUY Nikoloz Basilashvili 43¢ $694 45h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $184 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 21¢ $517 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 78¢ $1,979 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 52¢ $1,294 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $149 2d
ITF Cuiaba: Antonia Rivera vs Carolina Alves BUY Antonia Rivera 15¢ $181 2d
ITF Cuiaba: Antonia Rivera vs Carolina Alves BUY Antonia Rivera 28¢ $306 2d
ITF Cuiaba: Antonia Rivera vs Carolina Alves BUY Antonia Rivera 37¢ $204 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 67¢ $101 2d
ITF Cuiaba: Antonia Rivera vs Carolina Alves SELL Antonia Rivera 25¢ $1,018 2d
ITF Cuiaba: Antonia Rivera vs Carolina Alves BUY Antonia Rivera 32¢ $92 2d
ITF Cuiaba: Antonia Rivera vs Carolina Alves BUY Antonia Rivera 24¢ $12 2d
ITF Cuiaba: Antonia Rivera vs Carolina Alves BUY Antonia Rivera 28¢ $143 2d
ITF Cuiaba: Antonia Rivera vs Carolina Alves SELL Antonia Rivera 27¢ $141 2d
ITF Cuiaba: Antonia Rivera vs Carolina Alves BUY Antonia Rivera 50¢ $41 2d
ITF Cuiaba: Antonia Rivera vs Carolina Alves BUY Antonia Rivera 51¢ $127 2d
ITF Cuiaba: Antonia Rivera vs Carolina Alves BUY Antonia Rivera 54¢ $101 2d
ITF Cuiaba: Antonia Rivera vs Carolina Alves BUY Antonia Rivera 53¢ $101 2d
ITF Cuiaba: Antonia Rivera vs Carolina Alves BUY Antonia Rivera 52¢ $101 2d
ITF Cuiaba: Antonia Rivera vs Carolina Alves BUY Antonia Rivera 51¢ $101 2d
ITF Cuiaba: Antonia Rivera vs Carolina Alves BUY Antonia Rivera 48¢ $102 2d
ITF Cuiaba: Antonia Rivera vs Carolina Alves BUY Antonia Rivera 55¢ $101 2d
ITF Cuiaba: Antonia Rivera vs Carolina Alves BUY Antonia Rivera 52¢ $101 2d
ITF Cuiaba: Antonia Rivera vs Carolina Alves BUY Antonia Rivera 52¢ $101 2d
ITF Cuiaba: Antonia Rivera vs Carolina Alves BUY Antonia Rivera 53¢ $101 2d
ITF Cuiaba: Antonia Rivera vs Carolina Alves BUY Antonia Rivera 54¢ $101 2d
ITF Cuiaba: Antonia Rivera vs Carolina Alves BUY Antonia Rivera 52¢ $101 2d
ITF Cuiaba: Antonia Rivera vs Carolina Alves BUY Antonia Rivera 51¢ $101 2d
ITF Cuiaba: Antonia Rivera vs Carolina Alves BUY Antonia Rivera 50¢ $101 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 840 history records