Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T19:50:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1C
0x1cf1…ea97
crypto · 387 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$39 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$40 · open +$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$14
Realized−$40
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses300 / 85
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)385 / 387
History coverage138d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day7.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%
Chart Positions 2 History 385 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days−$24
14 days−$40
30 days−$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 21¢ 24¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+17%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 74¢ 76¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+2%)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 8.5 Over 42¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-6.5) Phoenix Mercury 53¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 4.5 Over 67¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Detroit Tigers 54¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Los Angeles Dodgers 61¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Chicago Cubs 38¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5 Under 52¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 13 $9 $0 +1%
New York Liberty vs. Atlanta Dream Jun 12 $9 +$2 +21%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 11 $10 −$10 -99%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 10 $10 +$4 +36%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5 Jun 10 $7 −$7 -99%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 10 $5 +$1 +16%
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $8 +$1 +12%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-3.5) Jun 09 $6 +$1 +25%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 4.5 Jun 09 $9 −$9 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 07 $8 +$1 +12%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 10.5 Jun 07 $5 +$4 +70%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 8.5 Jun 07 $7 −$7 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) Jun 06 $7 +$3 +40%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 207.5 Jun 06 $5 +$3 +64%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 166.5 Jun 05 $4 +$3 +79%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 05 $8 −$8 -99%
Spread: Spurs (-8.5) Jun 04 $3 +$2 +65%
Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-6.5) Jun 04 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9PM ET Jun 03 $17 −$11 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9PM ET Jun 02 $12 $0 +0%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 02 $8 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6AM ET Jun 01 $10 $0 +3%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3AM ET May 31 $16 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1AM ET May 30 $11 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5PM ET May 29 $18 $0 +0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 3, 2026? May 29 $9 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1AM ET May 29 $14 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5PM ET May 29 $16 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3PM ET May 28 $16 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12PM ET May 27 $20 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6PM ET May 23 $15 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7AM ET May 20 $14 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1AM ET May 20 $17 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9PM ET May 20 $14 +$1 +5%
Chelsea FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 5.5 May 20 $8 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4PM ET May 20 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11PM ET May 19 $11 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3PM ET May 18 $11 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6AM ET May 18 $12 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9PM ET May 18 $13 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6AM ET May 17 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11PM ET May 17 $17 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7AM ET May 16 $14 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10AM ET May 15 $7 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5AM ET May 15 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4AM ET May 15 $11 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2AM ET May 15 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11PM ET May 15 $13 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 52% −$12
politics 17% −$2
sports 12% −$26
other 11% $0
world 7% $0
economics 1% −$1
culture 0% +$1
finance 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 74¢ $6 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 21¢ $7 1h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $9 11h
New York Liberty vs. Atlanta Dream BUY New York Liberty 82¢ $9 42h
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Detroit Tigers 54¢ $10 2d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $9 2d
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 73¢ $10 3d
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 52¢ $7 3d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins BUY Miami Marlins 86¢ $5 3d
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $9 3d
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-3.5) BUY Athletics 80¢ $5 4d
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-3.5) BUY Athletics 80¢ $1 4d
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 67¢ $9 4d
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? BUY No 65¢ $8 5d
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Chicago Cubs 38¢ $5 5d
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Kansas City Royals 89¢ $8 5d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 58¢ $5 5d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 42¢ $7 6d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 207.5 BUY Over 61¢ $5 7d
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) BUY Knicks 71¢ $7 7d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 61¢ $8 8d
Golden State Valkyries vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 166.5 BUY Over 55¢ $4 8d
Spread: Phoenix Mercury (-6.5) BUY Phoenix Mercury 53¢ $10 9d
Spread: Spurs (-8.5) BUY Knicks 60¢ $3 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9PM ET SELL Down 36¢ $6 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $17 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $12 11d
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Detroit Tigers 86¢ $8 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $10 12d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY No 100¢ $5 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -23.5% -30.8% 62% 54% -32.2%
≤30d 53 -5.1% -14.2% 83% 23% -15.2%
≤90d 224 -1.6% -11.0% 87% 6% -10.9%
all 385 -1.7% -11.1% 78% 4% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover7.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 4% -10.2%
10% -19.6% 2% -18.8%
15% -27.4% 2% -26.6%
20% -34.5% 1% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.28 · official $14.28 (match) · 1702 history records