Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T01:41:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
1C 0x1cf1…6ca1 sports 9 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate100%1W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$123per market
Trades / day11.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$1,004now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 64% +$1
finance 27% +$5
other 9% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-5.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +4.0% -5.9% 100% 0% -5.9%
≤30d 1 +4.0% -5.9% 100% 0% -5.9%
≤90d 1 +4.0% -5.9% 100% 0% -5.9%
all 1 +4.0% -5.9% 100% 0% -5.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.9% 0% -5.9%
10% -14.9% 0% -14.9%
15% -23.1% 0% -23.1%
20% -30.6% 0% -30.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$1,004
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses1 / 0
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions8
Markets (closed)1 / 9
History coverage1d
Avg bet$123
Trades / day11.0
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 1 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in June? No 97¢ 99¢ $302 $307 +$5 (+2%)
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) Japan 95¢ 96¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Over 92¢ 92¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway: O/U 0.5 Over 94¢ 94¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-30? No 93¢ 92¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) Norway 91¢ 90¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 Over 91¢ 90¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Netherlands 92¢ 90¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: South Africa (-1.5) Jun 28 $100 +$4 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 91¢ $100 2h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $100 2h
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) BUY Norway 91¢ $100 14h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 94¢ $100 14h
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) BUY Japan 95¢ $100 14h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-30? BUY No 93¢ $100 14h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 92¢ $100 14h
Spread: South Africa (-1.5) BUY Canada 96¢ $100 14h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in June? BUY No 97¢ $117 14h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in June? BUY No 97¢ $97 14h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in June? BUY No 97¢ $88 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,003.52 · official $1,003.52 (match) · 12 history records