Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:57:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
1C 0x1cf2…cec8 crypto 128 markets active 1h ago coverage 587d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$5,993 (+51%) realized +$6,471 · open −$478
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate31%40W / 87L
Drawdown19%max
Avg bet$92per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$69est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,527
7 days+$5,576
14 days+$5,576
30 days+$5,737
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 49% −$350
other 30% +$294
sports 17% +$4,744
politics 4% −$314
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-1.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 68 +48.7% +34.5% 35% 34% +59.9%
≤30d 86 +32.5% +19.9% 36% 35% +51.1%
≤90d 118 +14.3% +3.4% 33% 31% +44.7%
all 127 +8.4% -1.9% 31% 30% +34.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.9% 30% +34.9%
10% -11.3% 29% +22.0%
15% -19.9% 29% +10.2%
20% -27.7% 27% -0.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +59% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +48% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -42% → late +58% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$248 vs −$58 · ×4.26 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.96 per $1 lost it wins $1.96
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

587d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized+$6,471
Unrealized−$478
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses40 / 87
Est. fees paid−$69
Open positions1
Markets (closed)127 / 128
History coverage587d
Avg bet$92
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown19%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 127 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $481 $3 −$478 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 77 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 16 $158 −$152 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 16 $243 −$230 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $186 +$332 +178%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 16 $69 −$66 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $104 −$99 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 16 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $114 −$110 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 15 $42 −$40 -94%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $177 −$79 -44%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $201 +$790 +392%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $733 +$1,410 +192%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 14 $31 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 14 $24 −$23 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 14 $74 −$70 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 14 $16 +$309 +1931%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 14 $15 −$14 -96%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $418 −$219 -52%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $184 +$3,145 +1714%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 13 $83 −$80 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 13 $40 +$43 +107%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $428 −$171 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 13 $78 −$75 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 13 $26 +$52 +202%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 13 $261 −$250 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 13 $105 +$182 +174%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 13 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 13 $145 +$289 +200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 13 $262 −$149 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 13 $92 +$171 +186%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 13 $105 +$221 +210%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 13 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 13 $52 +$67 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 13 $69 −$22 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 13 $43 −$41 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 13 $63 −$20 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 13 $44 +$18 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 13 $31 +$5 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 13 $33 +$62 +184%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 13 $105 −$3 -3%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 13 $213 −$208 -98%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 13 $258 +$532 +206%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $103 −$59 -57%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $579 +$521 +90%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 13 $99 −$96 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 13 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 12 $48 +$41 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$40 +398%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 12 $81 −$80 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET SELL Down 90¢ $401 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET SELL Up 56¢ $116 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $69 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $69 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $26 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 5¢ $207 2h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $64 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $32 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $83 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $21 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $21 3h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 14¢ $113 3h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 15¢ $110 3h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 3¢ $91 8h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 5¢ $71 8h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 4¢ $106 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.84 · official $2.84 (match) · 333 history records