Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T17:39:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1C 0x1cf2…75f8 world 36 markets active 1h ago coverage 490d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate47%17W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$4
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 66% −$3
other 13% −$1
tech 5% +$4
politics 5% $0
weather 4% $0
sports 4% −$1
crypto 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-15.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -3.7% -12.9% 33% 0% -10.4%
≤30d 13 -1.2% -10.6% 31% 8% -10.5%
≤90d 13 -1.2% -10.6% 31% 8% -10.5%
all 36 -6.8% -15.7% 47% 8% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.7% 8% -9.7%
10% -23.7% 3% -18.4%
15% -31.1% 3% -26.3%
20% -37.9% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 71% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

490d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses17 / 19
Open positions0
Markets (closed)36 / 36
History coverage490d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 36 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 23 $39 $0 +0%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $40 $0 +1%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $11 −$1 -12%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $65 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $23 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 15 $1 $0 -8%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $15 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $84 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $43 −$3 -8%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $48 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $44 $0 -1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $1 $0 +12%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $2 $0 +0%
Will Benfica win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 10 $1 $0 +2%
Will Meta have the top AI model on June 30? Dec 10 $11 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $111K and $113K on June 3? Jun 04 $2 $0 +2%
Will the next Government of Canada be led by another party or coalitio May 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will Anders Arborelius be the next pope? May 09 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Yoon Suk Yeol be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 18 $10 $0 +2%
Will the St. Louis Blues win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 17 $1 $0 +5%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2025 World Series? Apr 16 $11 $0 +0%
Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian presidential election? Apr 14 $12 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Apr 14 $12 $0 +0%
Will Hong Joon-pyo be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 12 $12 $0 -0%
Will Meta buy TikTok? Apr 11 $12 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Apr 11 $12 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $4,500.00 by March 31? Apr 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Mar 29 $12 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 47-48°F on March 27? Mar 28 $14 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 325-349 times March 21-28? Mar 27 $14 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be 53°F or higher on March 23? Mar 22 $13 $0 +2%
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 21 $14 $0 +0%
Will CDU/CSU and AfD form the next German Government? Mar 19 $14 $0 -0%
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence at CPAC conference on Mar 05 $10 +$4 +39%
Cavaliers vs. Nets Feb 21 $10 +$1 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 97¢ $39 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 97¢ $39 1h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $18 9h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $8 9h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $14 9h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 79¢ $40 11h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $9 16h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 16¢ $11 18h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $10 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $15 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $20 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $6 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $23 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $23 8d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 8d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 8d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 8d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 17¢ $14 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 17¢ $1 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 17¢ $15 9d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $41 9d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $40 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 72¢ $40 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 78¢ $23 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 78¢ $20 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $48 10d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $48 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $36 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $4 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 98 history records