Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:31:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1C 0x1cf4…4024 other 264 markets active 1h ago coverage 134d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$87 (-0%) realized −$87 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate3%9W / 255L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$199per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$14
14 days−$29
30 days−$43
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$39
sports 25% −$25
culture 8% −$8
politics 8% −$8
economics 6% −$12
crypto 5% −$6
world 4% −$2
tech 1% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 72 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 181 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 264 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

134d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$87
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses9 / 255
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions0
Markets (closed)264 / 264
History coverage134d
Avg bet$199
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 264 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $342 −$1 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $152 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $50 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $206 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $550 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $391 −$1 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $776 −$2 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $281 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $217 $0 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $271 −$1 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $111 $0 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $254 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $325 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $338 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $380 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $274 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $103 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $172 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $393 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $636 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $196 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $126 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 12 $52 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $53 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $163 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $119 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $334 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $320 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $391 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $532 −$1 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $54 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $310 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $220 $0 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 08 $55 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 08 $329 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 07 $352 −$1 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $56 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $307 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 06 $56 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $672 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $477 −$1 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $57 $0 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 04 $59 $0 -0%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 04 $197 −$8 -4%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 04 $390 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $610 −$1 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 03 $119 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $752 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 02 $134 $0 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 02 $295 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $49 1h
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $49 2h
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $3 2h
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $46 4h
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $50 5h
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $50 6h
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $50 8h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $50 13h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $50 15h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $50 22h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $50 23h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $50 29h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $50 30h
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $50 35h
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $50 37h
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $50 38h
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $50 39h
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $50 41h
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $50 43h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $50 44h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $50 46h
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $50 2d
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $51 2d
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $51 2d
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $51 2d
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 97¢ $51 2d
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $51 2d
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $51 3d
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $51 3d
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $51 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1404 history records