Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:09:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
1C 0x1cf5…8cca crypto 75 markets active 0h ago coverage 142d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$168 (+4%) realized +$168 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate59%44W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$57per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11
7 days−$11
14 days−$11
30 days+$103
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 84% +$115
sports 9% +$42
other 2% −$48
world 2% +$14
finance 2% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-20.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -33.6% -39.9% 47% 47% -10.1%
≤30d 63 -17.5% -25.4% 56% 56% -6.8%
≤90d 69 -14.4% -22.6% 57% 55% -7.3%
all 75 -12.5% -20.8% 59% 55% -7.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.8% 55% -7.1%
10% -28.4% 45% -16.0%
15% -35.3% 31% -24.1%
20% -41.7% 16% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -33% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$33 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

142d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$168
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses44 / 31
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)75 / 75
History coverage142d
Avg bet$57
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 75 Trades
no open positions (18 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 20 $157 +$35 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 20 $103 +$23 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 20 $103 +$24 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 20 $103 +$48 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 20 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 20 $105 +$37 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 20 $103 +$24 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 20 $43 −$40 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 20 $32 +$13 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 20 $104 +$81 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 20 $45 −$43 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 20 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 20 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 20 $104 +$89 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 20 $52 −$25 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 20 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 20 $103 +$38 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 20 $20 +$4 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 20 $20 +$6 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 20 $10 +$5 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 20 $10 +$3 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 19 $17 −$16 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 19 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 19 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 19 $0 $0 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 04 $52 +$12 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 04 $52 +$31 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 04 $104 +$43 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 04 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 04 $104 +$41 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 04 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 04 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 04 $20 −$19 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 04 $26 +$9 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 04 $52 +$19 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 04 $52 +$20 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 04 $26 +$19 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 04 $52 +$10 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 04 $104 +$90 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 04 $78 −$78 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 04 $103 +$23 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 04 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 04 $78 −$78 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 04 $51 +$19 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 04 $11 −$11 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Down 63¢ $10 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Down 63¢ $7 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Down 63¢ $1 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Down 63¢ $1 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Down 63¢ $3 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Down 63¢ $1 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Down 63¢ $10 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Down 63¢ $1 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Down 63¢ $1 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Down 63¢ $5 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Down 63¢ $1 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Down 63¢ $2 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Down 63¢ $5 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Down 63¢ $3 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Down 63¢ $0 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Down 63¢ $1 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Down 63¢ $1 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Down 63¢ $2 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Down 63¢ $2 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Down 63¢ $5 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Down 63¢ $1 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Down 63¢ $5 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Down 63¢ $1 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Down 63¢ $5 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Down 63¢ $4 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Down 63¢ $1 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Down 63¢ $3 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Down 63¢ $13 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Down 63¢ $6 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Down 63¢ $1 22m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 252 history records