Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T06:23:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1C 0x1cf7…fa07 world 35 markets active 1h ago coverage 100d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$7,357 (+15%) realized +$7,498 · open −$141
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate39%12W / 19L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown36%max
Avg bet$1,427per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$818now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$18
14 days+$1,644
30 days−$1,730
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 90% +$5,092
other 5% +$969
culture 3% +$944
sports 2% +$548
crypto 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)+6.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +41.6% +28.1% 100% 100% +28.1%
≤30d 11 +87.2% +69.4% 64% 64% -31.1%
≤90d 29 +17.2% +6.1% 38% 34% +4.5%
all 31 +18.0% +6.7% 39% 35% +4.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +6.7% 35% +4.7%
10% -3.5% 29% -5.3%
15% -12.8% 26% -14.4%
20% -21.3% 19% -22.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 69% · top 2 83% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$940) neutral
Persistence
early -34% → late +67% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,351 vs −$474 · ×2.85 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.9 per $1 lost it wins $1.9
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$818
Realized+$7,498
Unrealized−$141
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses12 / 19
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions4
Markets (closed)31 / 35
History coverage100d
Avg bet$1,427
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $514 $489 −$26 (-5%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 19¢ $195 $198 +$3 (+1%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $195 $98 −$98 (-50%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $55 $35 −$20 (-37%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $42 +$18 +42%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $302 +$232 +77%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $208 +$104 +50%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 16 $90 +$15 +17%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $940 +$548 +58%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $215 +$720 +335%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 10 $1 +$6 +570%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 01 $341 −$125 -37%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 28 $3,691 −$2,689 -73%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 28 $500 −$217 -44%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 26 $915 −$343 -38%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 22 $3,023 +$11,236 +372%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? May 19 $500 +$128 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET May 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? May 14 $700 −$593 -85%
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? May 06 $1,200 −$1,200 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 7? May 05 $28 −$28 -100%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? Apr 25 $210 +$8 +4%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? Apr 23 $100 −$43 -43%
Israel military action against Fordow nuclear facility by April 30? Apr 22 $28 −$9 -32%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 17 $776 −$443 -57%
Will Cameron Young win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Shane Lowry win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman? Apr 09 $136 −$103 -76%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? Apr 08 $800 −$483 -60%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 05 $19,268 +$2,256 +12%
Will UAE strike Iran by April 30? Apr 04 $200 −$3 -2%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 01 $100 $0 +0%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 29 $10,456 −$1,928 -18%
US forces enter Iran by December 31? Mar 19 $2,500 −$215 -9%
Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 16 $1,418 +$944 +67%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 58m
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $11 1h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 1h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $110 1h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $52 1h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $100 6d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $48 6d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $155 6d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $98 6d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $98 6d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $103 6d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $97 6d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $102 7d
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 70¢ $42 7d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY 56¢ $302 7d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $208 7d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 34¢ $105 7d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 29¢ $90 9d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,489 10d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 62¢ $940 13d
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 100¢ $7 13d
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 21d
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $215 22d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 31¢ $216 22d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 49¢ $341 25d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? SELL Yes 1¢ $59 26d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $283 26d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $500 28d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? BUY Yes 1¢ $72 28d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL Yes 20¢ $572 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $818.37 · official $818.37 (match) · 204 history records