Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:07:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1C 0x1cf8…566b politics 99 markets active 1h ago coverage 370d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$13 (-0%) realized −$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate8%8W / 90L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$72per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$68now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 45% −$6
other 26% $0
sports 17% −$3
economics 4% −$3
crypto 4% $0
world 3% $0
culture 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-18.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 +0.0% -9.5% 33% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 4 -0.0% -9.5% 25% 0% -9.5%
all 98 -10.4% -18.9% 8% 1% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.9% 1% -9.7%
10% -26.7% 0% -18.3%
15% -33.8% 0% -26.2%
20% -40.3% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 94% · top 2 96% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×4.36 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

370d coverage
Net worth$68
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses8 / 90
Open positions1
Markets (closed)98 / 99
History coverage370d
Avg bet$72
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 98 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $68 $68 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $65 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 30 $67 $0 +0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $139 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 13 $131 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 7? Mar 07 $0 $0 -100%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 07 $2 $0 -6%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 07 $63 $0 -1%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Feb 28 $6 $0 -1%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 28 $131 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 25 $62 $0 -0%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 22 $122 $0 +0%
Will Sunderland win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Feb 21 $71 $0 -1%
US strikes Iran by February 18, 2026? Feb 20 $67 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in February? Feb 09 $66 $0 -0%
Will Everton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Feb 01 $67 $0 -0%
Will Burnley win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 28 $1 $0 -50%
Will Club Brugge win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 28 $194 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 27 $68 $0 -1%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 26 $1 $0 -50%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 25 $67 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 23 $206 $0 -0%
Will Ajax win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 21 $66 $0 -1%
Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent as the next Fed chair? Jan 20 $2 −$1 -44%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 20 $67 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 18 $68 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? Jan 17 $68 $0 +0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 15 $141 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 12 $1 $0 -50%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 12 $331 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 11 $71 $0 -0%
Will Espanyol win the 2025–26 La Liga? Jan 09 $69 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 07 $141 $0 +0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 04 $139 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 01 $71 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Dec 30 $68 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 28 $70 $0 -0%
Will Bournemouth win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 27 $71 $0 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Dec 25 $70 $0 -0%
Will West Ham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 23 $69 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 22 $64 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 21 $1 $0 +0%
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Anthony Joshua? Dec 20 $63 +$8 +14%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on December 15? Dec 16 $61 $0 +0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 13 $64 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 11 $65 $0 -0%
Will Leeds win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 09 $61 $0 -0%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 05 $63 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by November 30? Dec 01 $64 $0 +0%
Will the Tennessee Titans win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 30 $2 −$1 -57%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 27 $3 $0 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $68 1h
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $65 9d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $65 14d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $67 23d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $65 25d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $65 27d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $67 35d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $67 99d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 7? BUY No 0¢ $0 102d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 102d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $61 102d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $61 107d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 107d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 109d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 109d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $62 109d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $62 110d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 110d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 112d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 112d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $62 112d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $62 114d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 114d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $6 115d
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $59 115d
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $58 116d
Will Sunderland win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 116d
US strikes Iran by February 18, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $67 118d
Will Sunderland win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 128d
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in February? SELL No 100¢ $66 128d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $67.56 · official $67.56 (match) · 494 history records