Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T02:33:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
1C 0x1cf9…2340 world 24 markets active 2h ago coverage 487d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$22 (+4%) realized +$22 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate68%15W / 7L
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days+$1
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 71% +$2
other 9% −$7
weather 8% +$6
finance 7% $0
crypto 5% +$1
sports 1% +$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-6.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.6% -10.1% 50% 0% -8.9%
≤30d 12 +1.0% -8.6% 58% 8% -9.1%
≤90d 12 +1.0% -8.6% 58% 8% -9.1%
all 22 +3.2% -6.6% 68% 14% -6.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.6% 14% -6.7%
10% -15.6% 9% -15.6%
15% -23.7% 5% -23.8%
20% -31.2% 5% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 81% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.79 per $1 lost it wins $2.79
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

487d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized+$22
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses15 / 7
Open positions2
Markets (closed)22 / 24
History coverage487d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No 82¢ 81¢ $44 $44 −$0 (-1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 49¢ 48¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 19 $42 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $12 −$2 -15%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $6 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 19 $3 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $5 $0 +3%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $44 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $26 +$1 +2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $48 +$2 +5%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $91 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $2 $0 +17%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $40 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 10 $80 $0 +0%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 World Series? Dec 10 $1 $0 +4%
Will the New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 10 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 24 $1 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? Jun 02 $2 $0 +1%
Will 'Alto Knights' gross more than 7m on opening weekend? Mar 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2025 Chinese Grand Prix Sprint? Mar 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 54°F or below on March 22? Mar 23 $25 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by March 31? Mar 21 $26 +$1 +2%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.20-1.24ºC in February 20 Mar 12 $21 +$5 +27%
Campbell vs. North Carolina A&T Mar 04 $6 +$14 +223%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $44 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 50¢ $26 14h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 50¢ $8 14h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $18 15h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $15 15h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $24 29h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $18 29h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $39 32h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $3 32h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes $3 35h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes $3 35h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes $5 35h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes $12 37h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $6 40h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $6 41h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $3 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $0 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $3 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $2 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $4 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $5 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $11 5d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $33 5d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $6 5d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $38 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 25¢ $15 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 25¢ $1 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $17 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 61¢ $50 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $48 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.39 · official $44.01 (match) · 72 history records