trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 2 | +0.0% | -9.5% | 0% | 0% | -9.5% |
| ≤30d | 5 | -1.0% | -10.4% | 0% | 0% | -10.9% |
| ≤90d | 5 | -1.0% | -10.4% | 0% | 0% | -10.9% |
| all | 22 | -7.2% | -16.1% | 41% | 0% | -10.6% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -16.1% | 0% | -10.6% |
| 10% | -24.1% | 0% | -19.2% |
| 15% | -31.4% | 0% | -27.0% |
| 20% | -38.2% | 0% | -34.2% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel closes its airspace by June 30? | No | 97¢ | 97¢ | $39 | $39 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? | Jun 23 | $10 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Jun 23 | $39 | $0 | +0% |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia | May 26 | $36 | $0 | +0% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | May 25 | $12 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran closes its airspace by May 31? | May 24 | $45 | −$2 | -5% |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by Friday? | Jun 22 | $1 | $0 | +4% |
| Will Han Duck-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? | Jun 05 | $1 | $0 | +4% |
| Will valid votes be between 30 million and 32 million in South Korean | Jun 05 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? | May 19 | $2 | $0 | +3% |
| Will Jose Tolentino de Mendonca be the next pope? | May 09 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Google have the top AI model on March 31? | Mar 27 | $12 | $0 | -0% |
| Will CDU/CSU and SPD form the next German Government? | Mar 25 | $13 | $0 | -2% |
| Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 14-21? | Mar 19 | $13 | $0 | +3% |
| Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? | Mar 17 | $13 | $0 | -0% |
| Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by March 15? | Mar 17 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Liverpool wins the Premier League? | Mar 16 | $13 | $0 | -0% |
| Dogecoin above $0.20 on March 14? | Mar 15 | $10 | +$1 | +7% |
| Will the Los Angeles Kings win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | Mar 14 | $1 | $0 | -1% |
| Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14? | Mar 13 | $1 | −$1 | -72% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $87000 and $89000 on Mar 14? | Mar 12 | $14 | $0 | -2% |
| Will the highest temperature in NYC be 56°F or below on March 11? | Mar 12 | $14 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Trump post 70-79 times on Truth March 7-14? | Mar 10 | $14 | $0 | +0% |