Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T13:24:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
1C 0x1cff…3984 sports 598 markets active 0h ago coverage 168d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$615 (+1%) realized +$733 · open −$118
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate45%268W / 326L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$148per market
Trades / day5.4pace
Fees−$704est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$297now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$122
7 days−$493
14 days−$492
30 days−$559
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% −$57
other 4% −$393
world 0% −$155
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -11.9% -20.3% 48% 48% -18.8%
≤30d 94 -3.5% -12.7% 48% 48% -12.9%
≤90d 339 +0.4% -9.1% 48% 47% -9.2%
all 594 -0.5% -10.0% 45% 44% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 44% -10.0%
10% -18.6% 42% -18.6%
15% -26.5% 36% -26.5%
20% -33.7% 30% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$111 vs −$93 · ×1.19 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

168d coverage
Net worth$297
Realized+$733
Unrealized−$118
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses268 / 326
Est. fees paid−$704
Open positions4
Markets (closed)594 / 598
History coverage168d
Avg bet$148
Trades / day5.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 594 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Max Basing vs Remy Bertola Remy Bertola 79¢ 52¢ $200 $130 −$70 (-35%)
Counter-Strike: Vasco Esports vs Isurus (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship South American Series #1 Group A Isurus 63¢ 64¢ $86 $88 +$2 (+2%)
Valorant: Beşiktaş Esports vs AlQadsiah Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group A AlQadsiah Esports 43¢ 42¢ $80 $78 −$2 (-2%)
Mallorca Championships: Luciano Darderi vs Nuno Borges Luciano Darderi 12¢ $49 $0 −$49 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 220 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Erika Andreeva vs Kayla Day Jun 24 $203 +$157 +78%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jelena Ostapenko vs Panna Udvardy Jun 24 $202 +$131 +65%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Arthur Fery vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo Jun 24 $202 −$200 -99%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Toby Samuel vs Thiago Agustin Tirante Jun 24 $41 −$40 -97%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Max Basing vs Tom Gentzsch Jun 24 $113 −$111 -98%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs OG - Map 1 Winner Jun 23 $102 +$124 +122%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Aleksandar Kovacevic Jun 23 $403 +$156 +39%
Portugal to win the second half? Jun 23 $80 −$78 -98%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Lola Radivojevic vs Marina Bassols Riber Jun 23 $63 −$62 -98%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Harriet Dart Jun 23 $203 −$200 -99%
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs G2 Minnesota - Game 2 Winner Jun 21 $104 +$83 +79%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Falcons (-3.5) vs FURIA (+3.5) Jun 21 $122 +$211 +172%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 21 $176 +$200 +114%
Mallorca Championships: Mariano Navone vs Lorenzo Sonego Jun 21 $248 +$57 +23%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 21 $199 −$196 -98%
Call of Duty: Vancouver Surge vs Los Angeles Thieves - Game 1 Winner Jun 20 $302 +$73 +24%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz Jun 20 $202 −$200 -99%
Counter-Strike: xept vs Clutchain (BO3) - United21 Group B Jun 20 $110 +$45 +41%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 20 $155 −$153 -98%
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs Cloud9 New York - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $201 −$200 -99%
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Alina Charaeva Jun 19 $225 +$107 +47%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 19 $204 −$200 -98%
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Talia Gibson Jun 19 $203 −$200 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla Jun 18 $202 −$48 -24%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $125 +$207 +165%
Figueira Da Foz: Jeline Vandromme vs Valentina Ryser Jun 18 $202 +$66 +32%
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $226 −$222 -98%
Valorant: Dynamo Esports vs ROSE (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Gr Jun 18 $311 −$17 -5%
Valorant: FlyQuest vs Evil Geniuses Academy (BO3) - VCL North America: Jun 18 $90 +$103 +114%
Asuncion 2: Nicolas Kicker vs Conner Huertas Del Pino Jun 17 $423 −$420 -99%
Nottingham 2: Billy Harris vs Arthur Gea Jun 17 $201 +$65 +32%
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 17 $301 +$54 +18%
Counter-Strike: JiJieHao vs Phantom (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Cl Jun 17 $202 −$200 -99%
Royan: Gerard Campana Lee vs Thomas Faurel Jun 17 $202 +$123 +61%
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - European Pro League Group B Jun 17 $109 −$108 -99%
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs G2 Minnesota (BO5) - Call of Duty Jun 14 $302 +$83 +27%
Rainbow Six Siege: Black Dragons e-Sports vs Fluxo W7M (BO1) - South A Jun 13 $48 +$140 +291%
Game Handicap: PR (-1.5) vs Ilbirs eSports (+1.5) Jun 13 $65 +$213 +325%
Cattolica: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Francesco Forti Jun 13 $202 +$106 +52%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Daniel Evans vs Marcos Giron Jun 13 $202 +$88 +43%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Viktorija Golubic vs Veronika Erjavec Jun 13 $127 −$125 -98%
Dota 2: Nande+4 vs Noir Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Group B Jun 13 $209 −$129 -62%
Tucuman: Johan Alexander Rodriguez vs Nicolas Kicker Jun 13 $101 −$99 -98%
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs FaZe Vegas (BO5) - Call of Duty Le Jun 13 $217 +$211 +97%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Team Heretics (-2.5) vs Team Vitality (+2.5) Jun 12 $203 −$33 -16%
LoL: Misa Esports vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group Jun 12 $53 −$52 -98%
Game Handicap: LOS (-1.5) vs paiN Gaming (+1.5) Jun 11 $100 +$105 +105%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: MOUZ (-3.5) vs Legacy (+3.5) Jun 10 $203 −$200 -99%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $203 −$200 -99%
Game Handicap: GAL (-1.5) vs WLGaming Esports (+1.5) Jun 10 $69 −$67 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Valorant: Beşiktaş Esports vs AlQadsiah Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stag BUY AlQadsiah Esports 43¢ $81 10m
Mallorca Championships: Luciano Darderi vs Nuno Borges BUY Luciano Darderi 10¢ $5 42m
Mallorca Championships: Luciano Darderi vs Nuno Borges BUY Luciano Darderi 13¢ $45 43m
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Max Basing vs Remy Bertola BUY Remy Bertola 79¢ $201 46m
Counter-Strike: Vasco Esports vs Isurus (BO3) - Thunderpick World Cham BUY Isurus 63¢ $87 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Erika Andreeva vs Kayla Day BUY Kayla Day 56¢ $203 24h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jelena Ostapenko vs Panna Udvardy BUY Jelena Ostapenko 60¢ $202 25h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Arthur Fery vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo BUY Arthur Fery 61¢ $202 25h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Toby Samuel vs Thiago Agustin Tirante BUY Thiago Agustin Tirante $5 26h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Toby Samuel vs Thiago Agustin Tirante BUY Thiago Agustin Tirante 10¢ $36 26h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Max Basing vs Tom Gentzsch BUY Tom Gentzsch 49¢ $113 26h
Portugal to win the second half? BUY No 28¢ $80 44h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Lola Radivojevic vs Marina Bassols Riber BUY Lola Radivojevic 37¢ $63 44h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Aleksandar Kovacevic BUY Daniel Altmaier 71¢ $202 45h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Aleksandar Kovacevic BUY Daniel Altmaier 72¢ $202 45h
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs OG - Map 1 Winner BUY FOKUS 44¢ $102 46h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Harriet Dart BUY Harriet Dart 57¢ $203 46h
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs G2 Minnesota - Game 2 Winner SELL G2 Minnesota 100¢ $187 3d
Mallorca Championships: Mariano Navone vs Lorenzo Sonego BUY Lorenzo Sonego 46¢ $10 3d
Mallorca Championships: Mariano Navone vs Lorenzo Sonego BUY Lorenzo Sonego 46¢ $132 3d
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Over 47¢ $67 3d
Mallorca Championships: Mariano Navone vs Lorenzo Sonego BUY Mariano Navone 33¢ $106 3d
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Over 47¢ $132 3d
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Falcons (-3.5) vs FURIA (+3.5) BUY Team Falcons 36¢ $122 3d
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Under 46¢ $74 4d
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Under 46¢ $102 4d
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs G2 Minnesota - Game 2 Winner BUY G2 Minnesota 55¢ $104 4d
Call of Duty: Vancouver Surge vs Los Angeles Thieves - Game 1 Winner BUY Los Angeles Thieves 80¢ $302 4d
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz BUY Alexander Zverev 64¢ $202 4d
Counter-Strike: xept vs Clutchain (BO3) - United21 Group B SELL xept 49¢ $155 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $296.77 · official $317.02 · 1111 history records