Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T10:43:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
1D 0x1d00…e1e0 other 82 markets active 8h ago coverage 70d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$133 (+6%) realized +$105 · open +$28
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate53%42W / 37L
Drawdown39%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$71now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$53
7 days−$50
14 days−$50
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% +$118
finance 24% −$24
sports 20% +$28
crypto 3% −$7
culture 1% $0
tech 1% −$1
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-2.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -40.0% -45.7% 25% 12% -24.3%
≤30d 19 -16.9% -24.9% 42% 26% -8.7%
≤90d 79 +7.6% -2.6% 53% 37% -5.3%
all 79 +7.6% -2.6% 53% 37% -5.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.6% 37% -5.3%
10% -12.0% 29% -14.4%
15% -20.5% 23% -22.7%
20% -28.3% 16% -30.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$7 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.35 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage
Net worth$71
Realized+$105
Unrealized+$28
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses42 / 37
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions3
Markets (closed)79 / 82
History coverage70d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown39%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 79 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (HIGH) $1,230 Week of June 22 2026? Yes 45¢ 94¢ $18 $38 +$20 (+109%)
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in June? Yes 30¢ 42¢ $15 $21 +$6 (+39%)
Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (HIGH) $1,290 Week of June 22 2026? Yes 50¢ 64¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+27%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 in June? Jun 25 $112 +$1 +1%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $710 in June? Jun 25 $45 −$31 -68%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? Jun 24 $133 −$17 -13%
Spurs vs. Thunder Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $64 Week of June 22 2026? Jun 24 $28 −$2 -6%
Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (LOW) $1,110 Week of June 22 202 Jun 23 $20 +$13 +66%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in June? Jun 23 $10 −$5 -48%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $68 Week of June 22 2026? Jun 23 $9 −$6 -65%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $700 in June? Jun 11 $20 $0 -0%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,100 in June? Jun 10 $162 +$26 +16%
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $450 in May? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 27? Jun 10 $86 −$19 -22%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $64 in June? Jun 10 $66 +$33 +50%
Will Deep Fission's market cap be between $1.5B and $1.75B at market c Jun 06 $107 −$33 -31%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $47 −$2 -4%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $72 in May? May 28 $28 +$13 +46%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,400 in May? May 28 $90 +$28 +31%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 27? May 27 $19 +$1 +8%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 27? May 27 $20 +$1 +5%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week May 23 $64 −$4 -6%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week May 23 $84 +$9 +10%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET May 19 $9 −$2 -27%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Spirit (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A May 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers May 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Knicks vs. 76ers May 19 $62 −$21 -34%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs REKONIX - Game 1 Winner May 19 $3 −$1 -17%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs REKONIX (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B May 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will MrBeast's video get between 62 and 64 million views on day 3? May 19 $38 +$14 +37%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 51 million views on day 3 May 19 $30 +$26 +88%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 51 and 52 million views on day 3 May 19 $13 +$26 +197%
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (HIGH) $280 in May? May 19 $30 −$24 -81%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 49 and 50 million views on day 3 May 19 $22 $0 +2%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 40 and 42 million views on day 2 May 18 $6 +$10 +170%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs PlayTime (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B May 17 $76 +$4 +5%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Team Heretics - Map 2 Winner May 17 $5 +$3 +69%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Spirit - Game 2 Winner May 16 $5 +$13 +249%
Valorant: KRÜ Esports vs G2 Esports - Map 2 Winner May 16 $141 +$23 +16%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 16 $5 +$6 +116%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 14? May 14 $65 +$1 +1%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 14? May 14 $64 $0 +0%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 14 $5 +$3 +58%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $745 Week of May 11 2026? May 13 $68 +$22 +31%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May? May 12 $58 +$1 +1%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs 1win (BO3) - 1win Essence Playoffs May 09 $8 −$8 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May? May 08 $15 $0 +1%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $82 in May? May 07 $22 −$11 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET May 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET May 07 $11 −$5 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET May 07 $10 −$5 -44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 in June? SELL No 76¢ $22 7h
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 in June? SELL No 76¢ $16 8h
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 in June? BUY No 74¢ $37 9h
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $710 in June? SELL Yes 10¢ $14 10h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? BUY No 9¢ $4 21h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? SELL No 11¢ $10 22h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in June? BUY Yes 30¢ $15 22h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? BUY No 22¢ $11 22h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? BUY No 24¢ $6 22h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? BUY No 24¢ $0 22h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? BUY No 24¢ $6 22h
Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (HIGH) $1,230 Week of June 22 20 BUY Yes 45¢ $18 33h
Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (LOW) $1,110 Week of June 22 202 SELL Yes 84¢ $33 2d
Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (HIGH) $1,290 Week of June 22 20 BUY Yes 50¢ $10 2d
Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (HIGH) $1,290 Week of June 22 20 SELL No 53¢ $10 2d
Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (HIGH) $1,290 Week of June 22 20 BUY No 55¢ $11 2d
Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (LOW) $1,110 Week of June 22 202 BUY Yes 50¢ $10 2d
Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (LOW) $1,110 Week of June 22 202 BUY Yes 50¢ $10 2d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in June? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 2d
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $68 Week of June 22 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $3 2d
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $64 Week of June 22 2026? BUY No 35¢ $4 2d
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $64 Week of June 22 2026? SELL No 38¢ $27 2d
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $64 Week of June 22 2026? BUY No 35¢ $10 2d
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $64 Week of June 22 2026? BUY No 36¢ $14 2d
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $68 Week of June 22 2026? BUY Yes 46¢ $5 3d
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $68 Week of June 22 2026? BUY Yes 46¢ $4 3d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? SELL Yes 37¢ $108 3d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in June? BUY Yes 19¢ $6 10d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? BUY Yes 35¢ $85 11d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? BUY Yes 35¢ $20 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $71.16 · official $68.41 · 359 history records