Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T16:41:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1D 0x1d02…5608 world 45 markets active 2h ago coverage 301d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$16 (-1%) realized −$16 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate28%12W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$2
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 44% +$1
other 25% −$20
politics 15% +$2
tech 5% $0
culture 4% +$1
sports 3% $0
finance 2% $0
economics 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.2% -9.7% 62% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 12 -0.3% -9.8% 50% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 12 -0.3% -9.8% 50% 0% -9.8%
all 43 -3.8% -12.9% 28% 5% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 5% -10.6%
10% -21.3% 0% -19.2%
15% -28.9% 0% -27.0%
20% -35.9% 0% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 70% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

301d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses12 / 31
Open positions2
Markets (closed)43 / 45
History coverage301d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 96¢ 96¢ $46 $46 +$0 (+0%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? No 42¢ 44¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 19 $95 −$2 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 19 $45 +$1 +2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $45 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $51 −$2 -4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $53 +$1 +1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $55 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $20 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $50 +$1 +2%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $43 +$1 +2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $27 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $12 $0 -4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $42 $0 +0%
Will Vlad Gheorghe be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Dec 12 $30 $0 +1%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Dec 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Dec 12 $54 +$10 +19%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Dec 12 $22 −$11 -50%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Dec 12 $52 −$15 -29%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $81 $0 +0%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $43 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 25 $36 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 25 $40 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2025? Nov 20 $1 $0 -19%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 14 $12 +$2 +20%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 24 $26 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 24 $16 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Daniel Penny in 2025? Oct 24 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Himself in 2025? Oct 23 $6 $0 +0%
Will Curtis Sliwa win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 23 $22 $0 -1%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025? Oct 23 $8 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130k in October? Oct 23 $7 $0 +1%
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? Oct 20 $29 +$1 +5%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? Sep 13 $28 $0 +0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 13 $28 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Sep 12 $8 $0 -6%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 12 $39 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 11 $40 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Sep 11 $40 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? Sep 10 $39 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 10 $31 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Sep 10 $10 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October? Sep 10 $1 $0 +0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 10 $12 $0 -0%
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? Sep 10 $39 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $46 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $30 8h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $16 8h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 52¢ $50 9h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 68¢ $10 15h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 68¢ $35 15h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 67¢ $45 19h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $45 22h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $39 27h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $6 27h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 52¢ $9 29h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 52¢ $40 29h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 54¢ $51 32h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 10¢ $9 45h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 10¢ $9 47h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $46 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $27 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $19 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $51 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $51 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $31 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $31 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $51 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $51 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 57¢ $21 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 57¢ $26 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 55¢ $2 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.14 · official $45.96 (match) · 188 history records