Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T19:25:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
1D 0x1d08…6e9b sports 640 markets active 0h ago coverage 83d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,650 (+15%) realized +$2,710 · open −$60
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate49%311W / 319L
Drawdown18%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day10.8pace
Fees−$259est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$271now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$136
7 days+$117
14 days+$10
30 days+$1,788
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$2,373
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-3.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 162 +5.8% -4.3% 41% 41% -3.5%
≤30d 344 +4.1% -5.8% 48% 47% +3.3%
≤90d 630 +6.9% -3.3% 49% 49% +3.1%
all 630 +6.9% -3.3% 49% 49% +3.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.3% 49% +3.1%
10% -12.6% 48% -6.8%
15% -21.0% 45% -15.8%
20% -28.8% 39% -24.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$21 · ×1.4 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.37 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

83d coverage
Net worth$271
Realized+$2,710
Unrealized−$60
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses311 / 319
Est. fees paid−$259
Open positions10
Markets (closed)630 / 640
History coverage83d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day10.8
Drawdown18%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 630 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) New York Yankees 67¢ 46¢ $259 $180 −$79 (-31%)
Nottingham 2: Coleman Wong vs Billy Harris Billy Harris 47¢ 100¢ $10 $21 +$11 (+113%)
Royan: Lucio Ratti vs Calvin Hemery Lucio Ratti 38¢ 74¢ $10 $19 +$9 (+94%)
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Over 21¢ 38¢ $10 $18 +$8 (+79%)
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Over 50¢ 48¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-5%)
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston Felix Gill 47¢ 46¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-3%)
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Corentin Moutet 39¢ 24¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-40%)
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Over 51¢ 58¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+15%)
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Over 26¢ 24¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Aoi Ito Aoi Ito 30¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 303 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Royan: Carlos Sanchez Jover vs Alejandro Moro Canas Jun 15 $10 +$19 +188%
Nottingham Open: Anna Blinkova vs Taylah Preston Jun 15 $10 +$28 +269%
Nottingham 2: Tomas Barrios vs Benjamin Bonzi Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Nottingham 2: Henrique Rocha vs Christopher O'Connell Jun 15 $10 +$23 +226%
Figueira Da Foz: Sachia Vickery vs Beatriz Haddad Maia Jun 15 $10 +$15 +152%
HSBC Championships: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
HSBC Championships, Qualification (Doubles): Frantzen/Haase vs Goranss Jun 15 $5 +$15 +291%
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider Jun 15 $10 +$11 +109%
Brescia: Alessandra Mazzola vs Luisina Giovannini Jun 15 $10 +$13 +129%
Royan: Ognjen Milic vs Thomas Faurel Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Dublin: Clement Chidekh vs Colton Smith Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Poznan: Petr Brunclik vs Sumit Nagal Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
HSBC Championships (Doubles): Minaur/Norrie vs Bhambri/Venus Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce Jun 15 $16 +$23 +140%
Dublin: Juan Pablo Ficovich vs Nicolas Mejia Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari Jun 15 $10 +$14 +140%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Zachary Svajda Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Francesca Jones Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Figueira Da Foz: Hayu Kinoshita vs Viktoria Hruncakova Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Nottingham 2: Luca Nardi vs Remy Bertola Jun 15 $7 +$22 +307%
Brescia: Kathinka von Deichmann vs Anastasiia Sobolieva Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Nottingham 2: Oliver Tarvet vs Roman Safiullin Jun 15 $10 +$15 +152%
Nottingham Open: Maya Joint vs Yulia Starodubtseva Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Halle Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 15 $9 −$9 -98%
HSBC Championships: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Harry Wendelken Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Lin Zhu vs Sinja Kraus Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tereza Valentova Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Halle Open (Doubles): Etcheverry/Kecmanovic vs Schnaitter/Wallner Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $2 +$6 +276%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $6 −$6 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
CD Universidad Católica vs. CD Universidad de Concepción: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $5 +$19 +365%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 11.5 Jun 14 $9 −$9 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $4 +$8 +188%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $5 +$6 +119%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $10 +$9 +91%
Atlanta Dream vs. Toronto Tempo: O/U 173.5 Jun 14 $5 +$6 +109%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 9.5 Jun 14 $10 +$11 +109%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-2.5) Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 10.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $7 −$7 -98%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $5 +$7 +140%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5) Jun 14 $10 +$9 +86%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $10 +$13 +124%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 51¢ $5 5m
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 21¢ $5 9m
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 21¢ $5 9m
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 50¢ $5 12m
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 51¢ $5 13m
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 26¢ $5 13m
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston BUY Felix Gill 47¢ $5 14m
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston BUY Felix Gill 46¢ $2 15m
Royan: Lucio Ratti vs Calvin Hemery BUY Lucio Ratti 37¢ $5 57m
Royan: Lucio Ratti vs Calvin Hemery BUY Lucio Ratti 39¢ $5 59m
Nottingham 2: Coleman Wong vs Billy Harris BUY Billy Harris 47¢ $5 1h
Nottingham 2: Coleman Wong vs Billy Harris BUY Billy Harris 47¢ $5 1h
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet BUY Corentin Moutet 39¢ $5 1h
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet BUY Corentin Moutet 39¢ $5 1h
Royan: Carlos Sanchez Jover vs Alejandro Moro Canas BUY Carlos Sanchez Jover 34¢ $5 1h
Royan: Carlos Sanchez Jover vs Alejandro Moro Canas BUY Carlos Sanchez Jover 34¢ $5 1h
Nottingham 2: Tomas Barrios vs Benjamin Bonzi BUY Tomas Barrios 34¢ $5 2h
Nottingham 2: Tomas Barrios vs Benjamin Bonzi BUY Tomas Barrios 26¢ $5 2h
HSBC Championships: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Denis Shapovalov BUY Jack Pinnington Jones 47¢ $5 2h
HSBC Championships: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Denis Shapovalov BUY Jack Pinnington Jones 46¢ $5 2h
Nottingham Open: Anna Blinkova vs Taylah Preston BUY Taylah Preston 27¢ $5 3h
Nottingham Open: Anna Blinkova vs Taylah Preston BUY Taylah Preston 26¢ $5 3h
Royan: Ognjen Milic vs Thomas Faurel BUY Ognjen Milic 24¢ $5 3h
Royan: Ognjen Milic vs Thomas Faurel BUY Ognjen Milic 24¢ $5 3h
Figueira Da Foz: Sachia Vickery vs Beatriz Haddad Maia BUY Sachia Vickery 39¢ $5 3h
Figueira Da Foz: Sachia Vickery vs Beatriz Haddad Maia BUY Sachia Vickery 39¢ $5 3h
Dublin: Clement Chidekh vs Colton Smith BUY Clement Chidekh 47¢ $5 3h
Dublin: Clement Chidekh vs Colton Smith BUY Clement Chidekh 46¢ $5 3h
HSBC Championships, Qualification (Doubles): Frantzen/Haase vs Goranss BUY Frantzen/Haase 25¢ $5 4h
Nottingham 2: Henrique Rocha vs Christopher O'Connell BUY Christopher OConnell 30¢ $5 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $270.87 · official $270.87 (match) · 1223 history records