Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:49:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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1D 0x1d0a…ea32 sports 1137 markets active 0h ago coverage 59d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$66 (-1%) realized −$88 · open +$22
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate36%405W / 719L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day36.8pace
Fees−$227est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$54now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$111
7 days+$446
14 days+$118
30 days+$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 78% +$166
crypto 16% −$183
other 4% −$217
world 1% −$66
culture 1% −$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-16.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 253 +8.0% -2.3% 39% 38% +3.6%
≤30d 686 -2.3% -11.6% 34% 32% -9.3%
≤90d 1124 -7.2% -16.0% 36% 34% -12.5%
all 1124 -7.2% -16.0% 36% 34% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover36.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.0% 34% -12.5%
10% ← realistic here -24.0% 32% -20.9%
15% -31.4% 29% -28.5%
20% -38.1% 27% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$8 · ×1.67 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

59d coverage
Net worth$54
Realized−$88
Unrealized+$22
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses405 / 719
Est. fees paid−$227
Open positions4
Markets (closed)1124 / 1137
History coverage59d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day36.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 1124 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn Ben Shelton 34¢ 100¢ $10 $29 +$19 (+190%)
Nottingham 2: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Remy Bertola Shintaro Mochizuki 30¢ 40¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+32%)
Royan: Gerard Campana Lee vs Lucio Ratti Gerard Campana Lee 11¢ 9¢ $7 $7 −$1 (-12%)
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Chun-Hsin Tseng Chun-Hsin Tseng 16¢ 18¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Figueira Da Foz: Alina Korneeva vs Martyna Kubka Jun 18 $13 +$12 +96%
Parma: Sebastian Ofner vs Roberto Carballes Baena Jun 18 $30 +$28 +91%
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Caty McNally Jun 18 $11 −$11 -98%
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Diane Parry Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Poznan: Michele Ribecai vs Joao Lucas Da Silva Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Taylor Fritz Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Poznan: Facundo Acosta vs Florian Broska Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez Jun 18 $10 +$13 +126%
Royan: Cosme de Ravel vs Raphael Perot Jun 18 $43 −$42 -98%
Dublin: Grigor Dimitrov vs Kyrian Jacquet Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 AND Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $26 +$88 +344%
Donna Vekic vs. Alexandra Eala: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Nottingham 2: Billy Harris vs Arthur Gea Jun 17 $8 $0 +0%
Asuncion 2: Santiago De La Fuente vs Matias Soto Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Qinwen Zheng Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Parma: Daniel Rincon vs Stefano Napolitano Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Dublin: Jurij Rodionov vs Colton Smith Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Asuncion 2: Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi vs Santiago Rodriguez Taverna Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 −$12 -61%
Brescia: Sarah Rakotomanga vs Mia Ristic Jun 17 $5 +$13 +262%
Asuncion 2: Eduardo Ribeiro vs Juan Manuel La Serna Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Katarina Kuzmova Jun 17 $8 +$12 +152%
Nottingham Open: Katie Volynets vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Poznan: Gustavo Heide vs Maxim Mrva Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Dublin: Yu-Hsiou Hsu vs Henry Searle Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Royan: Felix Balshaw vs Lucio Ratti Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Royan: Kilian Feldbausch vs Svyatoslav Gulin Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Royan: Leo Raquillet vs Pavel Kotov Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Royan: Gerard Campana Lee vs Thomas Faurel Jun 17 $5 −$4 -81%
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 17 $18 +$17 +93%
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Jerome Kym Jun 17 $16 +$32 +198%
Brescia: Xiyu Wang vs Carole Monnet Jun 17 $6 −$2 -28%
Brescia: Fiona Ferro vs Ekaterine Gorgodze Jun 17 $7 +$19 +284%
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 17 $9 +$10 +112%
Nottingham 2: Otto Virtanen vs Felix Gill Jun 17 $8 −$6 -78%
Brescia: Julia Grabher vs Anastasiia Sobolieva Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Poznan: Maks Kasnikowski vs Jan Choinski Jun 17 $10 +$4 +35%
Poznan: Facundo Acosta vs Hynek Barton Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Jun 17 $18 +$21 +120%
Royan: Emilien Demanet vs Carlos Sanchez Jover Jun 17 $10 +$26 +250%
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Ryan Seggerman Jun 17 $15 +$13 +83%
Dublin: Oliver Crawford vs Alexis Galarneau Jun 17 $15 +$42 +275%
Brescia: Darya Astakhova vs Luisina Giovannini Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Poznan: Petr Brunclik vs Florian Broska Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Parma: Chun-Hsin Tseng vs Oriol Roca Batalla Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Royan: Daniel Jade vs Raphael Perot Jun 17 $10 +$4 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Nottingham 2: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Remy Bertola BUY Shintaro Mochizuki 30¢ $10 8m
Royan: Gerard Campana Lee vs Lucio Ratti BUY Gerard Campana Lee 11¢ $8 16m
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Chun-Hsin Tseng BUY Chun-Hsin Tseng 16¢ $5 17m
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn BUY Ben Shelton 45¢ $3 49m
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn BUY Ben Shelton 32¢ $8 50m
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn SELL Ethan Quinn 29¢ $10 56m
Figueira Da Foz: Alina Korneeva vs Martyna Kubka BUY Alina Korneeva 26¢ $5 1h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn BUY Ethan Quinn 21¢ $3 1h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn BUY Ethan Quinn 17¢ $4 1h
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Caty McNally BUY Caty McNally 15¢ $1 1h
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Caty McNally BUY Caty McNally 22¢ $3 1h
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Caty McNally BUY Caty McNally 29¢ $8 1h
Poznan: Facundo Acosta vs Florian Broska SELL Florian Broska 0¢ $0 1h
Poznan: Facundo Acosta vs Florian Broska BUY Florian Broska 27¢ $5 1h
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez SELL Zeynep Sonmez 54¢ $23 1h
Royan: Cosme de Ravel vs Raphael Perot BUY Raphael Perot 13¢ $3 2h
Dublin: Grigor Dimitrov vs Kyrian Jacquet BUY Grigor Dimitrov 28¢ $10 2h
Figueira Da Foz: Alina Korneeva vs Martyna Kubka BUY Martyna Kubka 30¢ $8 2h
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez BUY Zeynep Sonmez 23¢ $10 2h
Poznan: Michele Ribecai vs Joao Lucas Da Silva BUY Joao Lucas Da Silva 25¢ $15 2h
Parma: Sebastian Ofner vs Roberto Carballes Baena BUY Sebastian Ofner 46¢ $10 2h
Royan: Cosme de Ravel vs Raphael Perot BUY Raphael Perot 23¢ $15 2h
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Taylor Fritz BUY Fabian Marozsan 6¢ $5 3h
Parma: Sebastian Ofner vs Roberto Carballes Baena BUY Sebastian Ofner 55¢ $20 3h
Royan: Cosme de Ravel vs Raphael Perot BUY Raphael Perot 50¢ $5 3h
Royan: Cosme de Ravel vs Raphael Perot BUY Raphael Perot 58¢ $20 3h
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Diane Parry BUY Diane Parry 14¢ $6 3h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 AND Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY 27¢ $26 14h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 AND Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY 22¢ $26 14h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 AND England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Sc BUY 8¢ $15 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $54.38 · official $54.38 (match) · 3039 history records