Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T17:09:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
1D 0x1d0d…ef5f other 286 markets active 166d ago coverage 328d ⚠
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 327d only
! high turnover
Total PnL +$43,829 (+18%) realized +$43,829 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate46%132W / 154L
Whale WR61%big bets
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$850per market
Trades / day9.5pace
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
tech 37% +$27,731
other 31% +$6,683
world 15% −$422
politics 15% +$18,815
economics 2% −$2,915
crypto 1% −$189
sports 0% +$142
culture 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)+13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 286 +25.8% +13.8% 46% 37% +7.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.5 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +13.8% 37% +7.4%
10% ← realistic here +2.9% 33% -2.8%
15% -7.0% 25% -12.2%
20% -16.1% 19% -20.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +26% · $-wt +20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 61% (≥$812) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +44% → late +8% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
8.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$713 vs −$287 · ×2.48 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.13 per $1 lost it wins $2.13
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

328d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$43,829
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses132 / 154
Whale WR (big bets)61%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)286 / 286
History coverage328d ⚠
Avg bet$850
Trades / day9.5
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 286 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump deport less than 250,000? Mar 08 $723 −$723 -100%
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwi Jan 02 $10 −$10 -100%
Will any AI model reach 1500+ on Chatbot Arena by Dec 31? Jan 02 $31 −$31 -100%
Will there be at least 2100 measles cases in the U.S. in 2025? Jan 02 $24 −$19 -79%
Will Elon Musk change his X profile picture by December 31? Jan 02 $680 −$587 -86%
Will Elon Musk be richest person on December 31? Jan 02 $1,245 −$1,244 -100%
Will Z.ai have the third-best AI model at the end of January 2026? Dec 31 $9,965 −$540 -5%
Will Google have the top AI model at the end of January 2026? Dec 31 $8 $0 -1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by March 31? Dec 31 $102 +$40 +40%
Will Google have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? Dec 31 $24 +$5 +21%
Will Meituan have the #2 AI model at the end of March 2026? Dec 31 $117 +$8 +7%
Will Google be the first company to have an AI model hit 1500 on Chatb Dec 31 $102 +$34 +33%
Will Google have the third-best AI model at the end of March 2026? Dec 31 $158 +$29 +18%
Will Google have the third-best AI model at the end of January 2026? Dec 31 $21 +$169 +805%
Will xAI have the #2 AI model at the end of December 2025? Dec 31 $910 −$62 -7%
Will Google have the best AI model for coding at the end of 2025? Dec 31 $16 −$16 -100%
Will xAI have the third-best AI model at the end of December 2025? Dec 31 $60 −$60 -100%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on December 31? Dec 31 $5,156 −$1,745 -34%
Will Google have the best AI model for math at the end of 2025? Dec 31 $80 −$80 -100%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on December 31? Dec 31 $36 +$84 +233%
Will Moonshot have the top AI model on December 31? Dec 31 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Microsoft have the top AI model on December 31? Dec 31 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Tencent have the top AI model on December 31? Dec 31 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Mistral AI have the top AI model on December 31? Dec 31 $99 −$99 -100%
Will any Google Gemini 3 model score at least 1500 on LMArena by Decem Dec 31 $1,737 +$62 +4%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model for math at the end of 2025? Dec 31 $247 +$133 +54%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model for math at the end of 2025? Dec 31 $507 +$329 +65%
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31? Dec 31 $22,357 +$7,685 +34%
Will there be at least 2050 measles cases in the U.S. in 2025? Dec 31 $156 −$143 -92%
Will Google have the #2 AI model at the end of December 2025? Dec 31 $573 +$193 +34%
Will xAI have the top AI model on December 31? Dec 30 $2,294 −$2,267 -99%
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Dec 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Dec 29 $82 +$83 +100%
Will Trump and Zelenskyy’s handshake last 2–6 seconds? Dec 28 $286 −$196 -68%
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwid Dec 28 $523 +$205 +39%
Will xAI have the #3 AI model at the end of December 2025? Dec 24 $16 +$7 +46%
Will Google have the #3 AI model at the end of December 2025? Dec 24 $881 +$119 +14%
Will Z.ai have the top AI model on December 31? Dec 23 $30 −$1 -3%
Will xAI have a #1 AI model by June 30? Dec 23 $4,500 −$3,250 -72%
Will a dozen eggs cost between $3.25–3.50 in November? Dec 18 $38 +$20 +53%
Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.75–3.00 in November? Dec 18 $2,192 +$1,006 +46%
Will a dozen eggs cost between $3.50–3.75 in November? Dec 18 $194 −$192 -99%
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31? Dec 18 $1,500 +$400 +27%
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on December 11? Dec 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Grand Slam South Afri Dec 10 $272 −$127 -47%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model for coding at the end of 2025? Dec 08 $491 −$92 -19%
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model by December 9? Dec 08 $64 +$410 +645%
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model by December 31? Dec 08 $70 $0 -0%
GOP uses 'Nuclear Option' to break filibuster by December 31? Dec 05 $40 −$34 -85%
Will Kendrick Lamar rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 202 Dec 04 $304 −$304 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk change his X profile picture by December 31? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 165d
Will Elon Musk change his X profile picture by December 31? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 165d
Will Z.ai have the third-best AI model at the end of January 2026? SELL No 99¢ $15 165d
Will Google have the top AI model at the end of January 2026? SELL Yes 83¢ $8 165d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by March 31? SELL No 71¢ $124 165d
Will Google have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 46¢ $29 165d
Will Meituan have the #2 AI model at the end of March 2026? SELL No 96¢ $125 165d
Will Google be the first company to have an AI model hit 1500 on Chatb SELL Yes 68¢ $136 165d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by March 31? SELL No 72¢ $18 165d
Will Google have the third-best AI model at the end of March 2026? SELL Yes 29¢ $187 165d
Will Google have the third-best AI model at the end of January 2026? SELL Yes 60¢ $188 165d
Will Google have the top AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $8 166d
Will Google have the #2 AI model at the end of December 2025? SELL Yes 97¢ $635 166d
Will Google have the #2 AI model at the end of December 2025? SELL Yes 97¢ $117 166d
Will Google have the #2 AI model at the end of December 2025? SELL Yes 97¢ $14 166d
Will there be at least 2050 measles cases in the U.S. in 2025? BUY No 15¢ $33 166d
Will there be at least 2100 measles cases in the U.S. in 2025? BUY Yes 7¢ $20 167d
Will there be at least 2050 measles cases in the U.S. in 2025? BUY No 47¢ $2 167d
Will there be at least 2100 measles cases in the U.S. in 2025? BUY No 95¢ $5 167d
Will there be at least 2050 measles cases in the U.S. in 2025? BUY Yes 76¢ $10 167d
Will xAI have the top AI model on December 31? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 167d
Will xAI have the top AI model on December 31? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 167d
Will xAI have the top AI model on December 31? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 167d
Will xAI have the top AI model on December 31? SELL Yes 1¢ $3 167d
Will xAI have the top AI model on December 31? SELL Yes 1¢ $5 167d
Will xAI have the top AI model on December 31? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 167d
Will xAI have the top AI model on December 31? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 167d
Will xAI have the top AI model on December 31? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 167d
Will xAI have the top AI model on December 31? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 167d
Will xAI have the top AI model on December 31? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 167d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records