Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:36:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1D 0x1d13…3c2f other 276 markets active 0h ago coverage 38d ⚠
BOTnot copyable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 38d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (85 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$168 (+0%) realized +$1,668 · open −$1,500
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate55%162W / 134L
Whale WR63%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$523per market
Trades / day85.4pace
Fees−$296est.
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$11,453now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 38d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 80% −$4,681
sports 18% +$1,890
politics 2% −$179
world 0% −$213
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (85 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-19.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 181 -19.9% -27.5% 51% 41% -26.0%
≤30d 261 -11.8% -20.2% 55% 44% -18.7%
≤90d 296 -11.1% -19.6% 55% 44% -16.3%
all 296 -11.1% -19.6% 55% 44% -16.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover85.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.6% 44% -16.3%
10% ← realistic here -27.3% 35% -24.3%
15% -34.3% 28% -31.6%
20% -40.7% 17% -38.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 63% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +8% → late -31% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
10.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$201 vs −$317 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

38d coverage
Net worth$11,453
Realized+$1,668
Unrealized−$1,500
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses162 / 134
Whale WR (big bets)63%
Est. fees paid−$296
Open positions30
Markets (closed)296 / 276
History coverage38d ⚠
Avg bet$523
Trades / day85.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 30 History 296 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Yes 71¢ 84¢ $4,638 $5,516 +$878 (+19%)
Harry Kane: 3+ goals No 67¢ 85¢ $1,074 $1,358 +$284 (+26%)
Bukayo Saka: 1+ goals No 76¢ 80¢ $776 $822 +$46 (+6%)
World Cup Goals H2H: Haaland vs. Alvarez Haaland 82¢ 88¢ $728 $789 +$61 (+8%)
Ismael Díaz: 1+ goals No 81¢ 76¢ $603 $572 −$31 (-5%)
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo Messi 82¢ 88¢ $468 $501 +$33 (+7%)
Brandon Thomas-Asante: 1+ goals No 0¢ 77¢ $0 $385 +$385 (+0%)
Will Lionel Messi score 4+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 63¢ 95¢ $230 $344 +$114 (+50%)
Petar Musa: 1+ goals Yes 99¢ 100¢ $315 $318 +$3 (+1%)
Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026? Yes 20¢ 13¢ $282 $187 −$96 (-34%)
Iñaki Williams: 1+ goals No 80¢ 78¢ $135 $131 −$4 (-3%)
Will Harry Kane score 2+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 97¢ 100¢ $118 $121 +$3 (+3%)
Will Reece James be in England's Starting 11? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $113 $114 +$1 (+1%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? No 89¢ 50¢ $143 $80 −$63 (-44%)
No one announced as next James Bond? No 10¢ 7¢ $57 $41 −$17 (-29%)
Anthony Gordon: 1+ shots No 20¢ 20¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+0%)
Will Neymar score 2+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 81¢ 84¢ $36 $38 +$2 (+4%)
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? No 80¢ 98¢ $17 $21 +$4 (+23%)
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 36¢ 78¢ $8 $18 +$10 (+119%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 2+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 33¢ 28¢ $16 $14 −$2 (-14%)
Callum Turner announced as next James Bond? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $16 $12 −$4 (-26%)
World Cup: Messi to Score 2+ Penalties? No 54¢ 55¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Andrej Kramarić: 1+ goals No 84¢ 88¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Bukayo Saka: 1+ shots No 12¢ 50¢ $1 $5 +$4 (+317%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 16¢ 22¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+34%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 113 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Harry Kane: Anytime Goalscorer Jun 17 $679 −$679 -100%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Gujarat Titans - Toss Match Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 11.5 Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Nottingham Forest FC (-2.5) Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Ousmane Dembele: Anytime Goalscorer Jun 17 $7 −$13 -200%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Mumbai Indians - Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Michael Olise: Anytime Goalscorer Jun 17 $138 −$138 -100%
Harry Kane: Anytime Goalscorer Jun 17 $470 −$470 -100%
Exact Score: Chelsea FC 1 - 0 Nottingham Forest FC? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Julian Alvarez: Anytime Goalscorer Jun 17 $478 −$478 -100%
Eli Junior Kroupi: Anytime Goalscorer Jun 17 $56 −$56 -100%
Ousmane Dembele: Anytime Goalscorer Jun 17 $643 −$643 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Jeremy Doku: Anytime Goalscorer Jun 17 $1,048 −$1,048 -100%
Harry Kane: Anytime Goalscorer Jun 17 $857 −$857 -100%
Alexander Isak: Anytime Goalscorer Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Benjamin Sesko: Anytime Goalscorer Jun 17 $83 −$83 -100%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia: Anytime Goalscorer Jun 17 $419 −$419 -100%
Cody Gakpo: Anytime Goalscorer Jun 17 $28 −$28 -100%
Michael Olise: Anytime Goalscorer Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Casemiro: Anytime Goalscorer Jun 17 $54 −$54 -100%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Delhi Capitals - Team To Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Ferran Torres: Anytime Goalscorer Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Royal Challengers Bengaluru - Jun 17 $164 −$164 -100%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Gujarat Titans - Who wins t Jun 17 $414 −$414 -100%
Exact Score: Club Atlético de Madrid 1 - 0 Arsenal FC? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Robert Lewandowski: Anytime Goalscorer Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $167 −$167 -100%
Joao Pedro: Anytime Goalscorer Jun 17 $122 −$122 -100%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Lucknow Super Giants - C Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Erling Haaland: Anytime Goalscorer Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Kolkata Knight Riders - Toss Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Rajasthan Royals Jun 17 $226 −$226 -100%
Marcus Rashford: Anytime Goalscorer Jun 17 $390 −$390 -100%
Luis Diaz: Anytime Goalscorer Jun 17 $19 −$19 -100%
Viktor Gyokeres: Anytime Goalscorer Jun 17 $111 −$111 -100%
Luis Diaz: Anytime Goalscorer Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Ousmane Dembele: Anytime Goalscorer Jun 17 $303 −$303 -100%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Chennai Super Kings Jun 17 $252 −$252 -100%
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 25.5 Jun 17 $45 −$45 -100%
Benjamin Sesko: Anytime Goalscorer Jun 17 $109 −$109 -100%
Lamine Yamal: Anytime Goalscorer Jun 17 $314 −$314 -100%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 2 - 1 FC Bayern München? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Everton FC 1 - 0 Manchester City FC? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Nottingham Forest FC 1 - 0 Newcastle United FC? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Exact Score: FC Bayern München 1 - 0 Paris Saint-Germain FC? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Jeremy Doku: Anytime Goalscorer Jun 17 $236 −$236 -100%
Albert Gudmundsson: Anytime Goalscorer Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brandon Thomas-Asante: 1+ goals BUY No 79¢ $397 0m
Ismael Díaz: 1+ goals BUY No 81¢ $606 1m
Iñaki Williams: 1+ goals BUY No 80¢ $136 1m
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 2+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 33¢ $16 12m
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo BUY Messi 86¢ $7 12m
Harry Kane: 3+ goals BUY No 69¢ $22 34m
Harry Kane: 3+ goals BUY No 69¢ $4 34m
Harry Kane: 3+ goals BUY No 69¢ $66 34m
Harry Kane: 3+ goals BUY No 69¢ $166 36m
Harry Kane: 3+ goals BUY No 69¢ $7 36m
Petar Musa: 1+ goals BUY Yes 99¢ $198 36m
Petar Musa: 1+ goals BUY Yes 99¢ $29 36m
Harry Kane: 3+ goals BUY No 69¢ $66 36m
Harry Kane: 3+ goals BUY No 69¢ $332 37m
Petar Musa: 1+ goals BUY Yes 99¢ $24 37m
Harry Kane: 3+ goals BUY No 69¢ $2 37m
Harry Kane: 3+ goals BUY No 69¢ $2 38m
Harry Kane: 3+ goals BUY No 69¢ $5 38m
Harry Kane: 3+ goals BUY No 69¢ $16 38m
Petar Musa: 1+ goals BUY Yes 99¢ $5 42m
Harry Kane: 3+ goals BUY No 67¢ $102 43m
Petar Musa: 1+ goals BUY Yes 99¢ $25 44m
Harry Kane: 3+ goals BUY No 67¢ $203 44m
Harry Kane: 3+ goals BUY No 67¢ $2 44m
Petar Musa: 1+ goals BUY Yes 99¢ $35 45m
Harry Kane: 3+ goals BUY No 56¢ $13 48m
Harry Kane: 3+ goals BUY No 56¢ $3 48m
Harry Kane: 3+ goals BUY No 56¢ $13 49m
Harry Kane: 3+ goals BUY No 56¢ $2 49m
Harry Kane: 3+ goals BUY No 56¢ $9 50m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11,453.18 · official $10,901.14 · 3500 history records