Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T09:28:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1D
0x1d16…e798
crypto · 89 markets active 18h ago
0.0score
+$11,950 +6%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$8,637 · open +$3,313
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$18,223
Realized+$8,637
Unrealized+$3,313
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses12 / 67
Whale WR (big bets)30%
Est. fees paid−$532
Open positions10
Markets (closed)79 / 89
Avg bet$2,390
Trades / day6.9
Drawdown88%
Kalshi-fit96%
Chart Positions 10 History 79 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$92
14 days−$92
30 days−$92
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $5,273 $7,119 +$1,846 (+35%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Yes 13¢ 19¢ $3,156 $4,456 +$1,300 (+41%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Yes 6¢ 8¢ $2,964 $3,743 +$778 (+26%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? No 17¢ 12¢ $1,503 $1,089 −$415 (-28%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $927 $974 +$47 (+5%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.4T? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $500 $603 +$103 (+21%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? No 3¢ 1¢ $380 $156 −$224 (-59%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? No 2¢ 1¢ $200 $75 −$125 (-62%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.6T? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+12%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be at least $3.5T at market close on IPO day? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+21%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 8? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $83 $0 −$83 (-100%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $70 by end of March? No 4¢ 0¢ $21 $0 −$21 (-100%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $24,470 $0 −$24,470 (-100%)
Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 March 2-8? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $373 $0 −$373 (-100%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $7,793 $0 −$7,793 (-100%)
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 2, 2026? No 3¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 6? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
US forces enter Iran by March 7? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $166 $0 −$166 (-100%)
Will the percentage change in the S&P 500 in Q1 2026 be between 5% and 6%? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in February? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 March 9-15? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 13? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 23, 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 8? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-100%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on March 4? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $41 $0 −$41 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 09 $581 −$92 -16%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 07 $2,656 −$2,656 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? May 01 $40,758 +$3,625 +9%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? Apr 24 $1,159 −$78 -7%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 24 $1,410 −$1,410 -100%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 24th? Apr 23 $800 −$800 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 24, 2026? Apr 22 $786 −$786 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 23, 2026? Apr 22 $200 −$200 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 22 $69,202 −$38,617 -56%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026? Apr 21 $7,793 −$7,793 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 21 $6,375 −$4,449 -70%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 21? Apr 21 $1,771 −$831 -47%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 21 $1,100 −$859 -78%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? Apr 20 $6,825 +$8,417 +123%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? Apr 15 $9,592 −$8,120 -85%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 15, 2026? Apr 15 $520 −$520 -100%
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 15? Apr 14 $1,593 −$816 -51%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 14 $7,025 +$2,494 +36%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? Apr 13 $2,597 −$1,803 -69%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April? Apr 13 $387 −$74 -19%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April? Apr 13 $10,189 −$1,002 -10%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 13 $4,187 −$687 -16%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April? Apr 13 $1,777 +$203 +11%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April? Apr 12 $1,288 +$121 +9%
US forces enter Iran by March 14? Apr 12 $362 −$288 -80%
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 15? Apr 12 $300 −$300 -100%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 12, 2026? Apr 12 $1,499 −$236 -16%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April? Apr 12 $2,498 −$1,135 -45%
US x Iran meeting by April 11, 2026? Apr 11 $200 −$133 -67%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Apr 07 $891 +$24,343 +2732%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 07 $4,123 +$47,068 +1142%
Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 March 9-15? Mar 13 $110 −$61 -56%
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 March 9-15? Mar 13 $264 −$160 -61%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 March 9-15? Mar 13 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 March 9-15? Mar 13 $60 −$60 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 14? Mar 13 $160 −$160 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 14? Mar 13 $380 −$380 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 13? Mar 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 13? Mar 13 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 13? Mar 13 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 March 9-15? Mar 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 11? Mar 10 $33 −$33 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 8? Mar 08 $83 −$83 -100%
US forces enter Iran by March 7? Mar 08 $644 −$454 -70%
Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 March 2-8? Mar 07 $374 −$373 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 7? Mar 07 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 March 2-8? Mar 07 $76 −$76 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 7? Mar 07 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 March 2-8? Mar 07 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 8? Mar 07 $22 −$22 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 80% −$8,353
finance 8% −$2,046
tech 8% +$3,212
crypto 2% −$3,565
other 2% −$1,714
sports 0% +$24,343
economics 0% +$73
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? BUY Yes 6¢ $141 17h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? BUY Yes 9¢ $158 17h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 23h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? BUY Yes 8¢ $364 23h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? BUY Yes 13¢ $8 27h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? BUY Yes 8¢ $902 29h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? BUY Yes 5¢ $886 29h
Will SpaceX's market cap be at least $3.5T at market close on IPO day? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 40h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? BUY Yes 8¢ $244 41h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? BUY Yes 5¢ $286 41h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? BUY Yes 5¢ $303 47h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? BUY Yes 8¢ $398 47h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? BUY Yes 11¢ $502 2d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? BUY Yes 10¢ $792 2d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? BUY Yes 16¢ $8 2d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? BUY Yes 16¢ $995 2d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? BUY No 20¢ $533 2d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? BUY Yes 8¢ $518 2d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 2d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? BUY Yes 11¢ $932 2d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.6T? BUY Yes 3¢ $4 2d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T? BUY Yes 6¢ $485 2d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? SELL No 7¢ $489 2d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? BUY Yes 7¢ $7 2d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? BUY Yes 18¢ $959 3d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? BUY No 16¢ $1,020 3d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? BUY Yes 10¢ $391 3d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? BUY No 2¢ $208 3d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? BUY No 3¢ $395 3d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? BUY No 8¢ $581 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-28.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -15.8% -23.9% 0% 0% -23.9%
≤30d 1 -15.8% -23.9% 0% 0% -23.9%
≤90d 31 +57.8% +42.8% 23% 19% +12.5%
all 79 -20.6% -28.2% 15% 13% +8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover6.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.2% 13% +8.1%
10% -35.1% 11% -2.3%
15% -41.3% 9% -11.7%
20% -47.1% 8% -20.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18,222.85 · official $18,222.85 (match) · 748 history records