Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T01:10:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
1D 0x1d19…ff7b other 7 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$4 (+3%) realized +$6 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +40% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +7% what you keep after slip
Net edge+7%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate50%3W / 3L
Drawdown59%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day25.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 71% +$1
sports 29% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+26.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +39.5% +26.2% 50% 33% -8.2%
≤30d 6 +39.5% +26.2% 50% 33% -8.2%
≤90d 6 +39.5% +26.2% 50% 33% -8.2%
all 6 +39.5% +26.2% 50% 33% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +26.2% 33% -8.2%
10% ← realistic here +14.2% 33% -17.0%
15% +3.1% 33% -25.0%
20% -7.0% 33% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 95% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% too few recent
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +40% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.62 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.62 per $1 lost it wins $1.62
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized+$6
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses3 / 3
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)6 / 7
History coverage1d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day25.0
Drawdown59%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Under 85¢ 82¢ $42 $41 −$2 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $68 −$1 -2%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 27 $28 −$1 -5%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 27 $2 +$3 +122%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $12 $0 -3%
Harry Kane: 2+ goals Jun 27 $2 +$1 +69%
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $3 $0 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 85¢ $6 9m
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 85¢ $3 9m
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 85¢ $11 9m
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 85¢ $22 9m
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? SELL No 73¢ $36 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 74¢ $37 1h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals SELL Yes 41¢ $1 1h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals SELL Yes 41¢ $5 1h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals SELL Yes 41¢ $1 1h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals SELL Yes 41¢ $20 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? SELL No 77¢ $30 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 77¢ $30 1h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 43¢ $28 2h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $5 2h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 97¢ $9 2h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 90¢ $8 2h
Harry Kane: 2+ goals BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 63¢ $3 2h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $3 2h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 62¢ $3 2h
Harry Kane: 2+ goals SELL Yes 21¢ $3 2h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 80¢ $4 2h
Harry Kane: 2+ goals BUY Yes 5¢ $2 3h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 45¢ $0 3h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 45¢ $2 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.00 · official $41.00 (match) · 25 history records