Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T13:00:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1D 0x1d19…e836 crypto 90 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (72 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$28 (+3%) realized +$27 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate52%46W / 43L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day72.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$8
weather 3% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (72 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 89 -0.5% -10.0% 52% 42% -10.6%
≤30d 89 -0.5% -10.0% 52% 42% -10.6%
≤90d 89 -0.5% -10.0% 52% 42% -10.6%
all 89 -0.5% -10.0% 52% 42% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover72.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.0% 42% -10.6%
10% ← realistic here -18.6% 34% -19.2%
15% -26.5% 25% -27.0%
20% -33.7% 20% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 41% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +58% → late -58% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$5 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$20
Realized+$27
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses46 / 43
Open positions1
Markets (closed)89 / 90
History coverage2d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day72.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 89 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C or higher on June 30? Yes 59¢ 64¢ $19 $20 +$1 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 29 $25 −$21 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 29 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 28 $4 +$2 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 28 $11 −$11 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 28 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 28 $7 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 28 $5 +$1 +16%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 28 $5 +$4 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 28 $26 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 28 $7 +$5 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 28 $2 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 28 $2 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 28 $1 +$1 +76%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 28 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 28 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 28 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 28 $6 −$3 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 28 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 28 $67 −$67 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 28 $83 +$70 +84%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 28? Jun 28 $2 −$2 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 27 $20 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 27 $2 +$1 +34%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 27 $20 +$4 +18%
XRP Up or Down - June 27, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 27 $17 +$4 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 27 $39 +$12 +30%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 27 $10 +$3 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 27 $36 −$1 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C or higher on June 30? BUY Yes 66¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET SELL Up 15¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C or higher on June 30? BUY Yes 55¢ $11 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $2 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $2 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $11 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $7 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $5 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $2 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $2 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $3 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $2 24h
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 25h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $2 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $0 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $16 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $10 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $5 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20.40 · official $20.40 (match) · 229 history records