Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:41:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
1D 0x1d1a…0800 other 7 markets active 6d ago coverage 57d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$37 (+44%) realized +$36 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate17%1W / 5L
Drawdown25%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 57d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 59% +$47
other 24% −$3
crypto 18% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-18.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -13.8% -22.0% 0% 0% -22.0%
≤30d 4 -13.8% -22.0% 0% 0% -22.0%
≤90d 6 -10.1% -18.6% 17% 17% +30.7%
all 6 -10.1% -18.6% 17% 17% +30.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.6% 17% +30.7%
10% -26.4% 17% +18.2%
15% -33.5% 17% +6.8%
20% -40.0% 17% -3.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +44% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +44% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$47 vs −$2 · ×19.55 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.91 per $1 lost it wins $3.91
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

57d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized+$36
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses1 / 5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)6 / 7
History coverage57d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown25%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $5 −$1 -14%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $5 −$1 -21%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $5 −$1 -18%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $5 $0 -3%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele May 12 $50 +$47 +95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 18? Apr 18 $10 −$9 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.38 · official $6.40 (match) · 64 history records