trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 4 | +97.6% | +78.8% | 50% | 50% | +32.7% |
| ≤30d | 6 | +31.8% | +19.2% | 33% | 33% | -16.4% |
| ≤90d | 9 | +46.3% | +32.4% | 33% | 33% | -17.6% |
| all | 20 | -26.8% | -33.8% | 20% | 20% | -39.7% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -33.8% | 20% | -39.7% |
| 10% | -40.1% | 20% | -45.5% |
| 15% | -45.9% | 20% | -50.7% |
| 20% | -51.2% | 15% | -55.6% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? | Yes | 5¢ | 5¢ | $10 | $11 | +$1 (+8%) |
| Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? | No | 2¢ | 3¢ | $5 | $9 | +$4 (+74%) |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Yes | 34¢ | 34¢ | $5 | $5 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | Yes | 3¢ | 0¢ | $20 | $2 | −$18 (-89%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET | Jun 17 | $5 | −$5 | -95% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET | Jun 17 | $16 | −$15 | -94% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET | Jun 17 | $5 | +$28 | +529% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET | Jun 17 | $26 | +$16 | +61% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET | Jun 09 | $5 | −$5 | -95% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET | Jun 09 | $26 | −$25 | -98% |
| Israel closes its airspace by May 31? | May 15 | $20 | −$20 | -100% |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | May 11 | $5 | +$21 | +426% |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31? | May 11 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026? | Feb 24 | $4 | −$4 | -100% |
| US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026? | Feb 24 | $4 | −$4 | -100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET | Feb 23 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET | Feb 22 | $10 | −$10 | -99% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET | Feb 22 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET | Feb 22 | $10 | +$5 | +47% |
| Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi | Feb 22 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will MrBeast's latest video get between 45 and 50 million views on wee | Feb 22 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET | Feb 22 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will MrBeast's latest video get 22–24 million views on day 1? | Feb 22 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Will MrBeast's latest video get 18–20 million views on day 1? | Feb 22 | $11 | −$11 | -100% |