Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:46:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1D 0x1d1c…0dda crypto 24 markets active 1h ago coverage 115d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$100 (-46%) realized −$86 · open −$14
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate20%4W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$26now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$24
7 days+$24
14 days−$6
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 49% −$14
world 31% −$42
other 15% −$32
sports 5% +$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-33.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +97.6% +78.8% 50% 50% +32.7%
≤30d 6 +31.8% +19.2% 33% 33% -16.4%
≤90d 9 +46.3% +32.4% 33% 33% -17.6%
all 20 -26.8% -33.8% 20% 20% -39.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.8% 20% -39.7%
10% -40.1% 20% -45.5%
15% -45.9% 20% -50.7%
20% -51.2% 15% -55.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 71% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -33% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -85% → late +32% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$8 · ×2.19 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

115d coverage
Net worth$26
Realized−$86
Unrealized−$14
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses4 / 16
Open positions4
Markets (closed)20 / 24
History coverage115d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Yes $10 $11 +$1 (+8%)
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? No $5 $9 +$4 (+74%)
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 34¢ 34¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Yes $20 $2 −$18 (-89%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 17 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$28 +529%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 17 $26 +$16 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 09 $26 −$25 -98%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? May 11 $5 +$21 +426%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31? May 11 $5 −$5 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026? Feb 24 $4 −$4 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026? Feb 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Feb 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Feb 22 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Feb 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Feb 22 $10 +$5 +47%
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Feb 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will MrBeast's latest video get between 45 and 50 million views on wee Feb 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Feb 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will MrBeast's latest video get 22–24 million views on day 1? Feb 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will MrBeast's latest video get 18–20 million views on day 1? Feb 22 $11 −$11 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $5 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up $5 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $5 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $5 59m
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No $5 1h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? BUY Yes $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $41 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 34¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $26 1h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? BUY Yes $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $5 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $26 8d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes $10 9d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 37¢ $20 33d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes $10 33d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 89d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31? BUY Yes $5 89d
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026? BUY Yes $4 113d
US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026? BUY Yes $4 113d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down $1 114d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $10 114d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up $1 114d
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi BUY Yes $1 115d
Will MrBeast's latest video get between 45 and 50 million views on wee BUY Yes $10 115d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $10 115d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up $1 115d
Will MrBeast's latest video get 22–24 million views on day 1? BUY Yes $10 115d
Will MrBeast's latest video get 18–20 million views on day 1? BUY No $11 115d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.49 · official $25.57 (match) · 34 history records