Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T00:33:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1D 0x1d1e…764b other 201 markets active 2h ago coverage 165d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$14 (-0%) realized −$14 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate14%28W / 173L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 28% −$4
sports 27% −$5
other 27% −$6
crypto 6% $0
world 5% $0
economics 4% −$1
culture 2% $0
finance 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -1.5% -10.9% 0% 0% -10.9%
≤30d 3 -1.0% -10.4% 0% 0% -10.5%
≤90d 85 -0.2% -9.7% 15% 0% -9.7%
all 201 -0.6% -10.1% 14% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.7% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.16 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.27 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

165d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses28 / 173
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)201 / 201
History coverage165d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 201 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 19 $35 −$1 -2%
Will Argentina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C Jun 07 $28 $0 -1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 25 $25 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 18 $113 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 02 $73 $0 +0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 01 $25 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 01 $63 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 01 $151 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 01 $110 −$1 -1%
Will Arthur Fils win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 30 $92 −$1 -1%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 30 $150 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 27 $34 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Apr 27 $62 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 25 $197 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 25 $230 −$1 -0%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 24 $65 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April? Apr 24 $37 $0 +0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 23 $30 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 22 $260 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 22 $71 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $59 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 21 $36 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 21 $231 $0 -0%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $58 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Flyers win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 20 $28 $0 -0%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 20 $119 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $125 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $65 $0 -0%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 19 $31 $0 -1%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 19 $38 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 18 $70 $0 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $79 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April? Apr 17 $37 $0 +1%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $71 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 15 $33 $0 -0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 15 $79 $0 +0%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 14 $37 $0 +0%
Will Romania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $29 $0 +0%
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Apr 13 $28 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Apr 13 $76 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $152 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 12 $35 $0 -0%
Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 12 $30 −$1 -4%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in April? Apr 12 $37 $0 +1%
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? Apr 11 $83 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 11 $31 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 11 $33 $0 -0%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 11 $166 $0 -0%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 10 $345 −$1 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 10 $132 −$1 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $35 1h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 95¢ $35 5h
Will Argentina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C SELL Yes 95¢ $27 12d
Will Argentina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C BUY Yes 96¢ $28 12d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $25 25d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $25 25d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 96¢ $36 32d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 97¢ $36 32d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $27 48d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $27 49d
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 96¢ $25 49d
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 96¢ $25 49d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $26 49d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $26 49d
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 97¢ $28 49d
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 97¢ $28 49d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 94¢ $34 49d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 96¢ $35 50d
Will Arthur Fils win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL No 95¢ $32 50d
Will Arthur Fils win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY No 96¢ $32 50d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 95¢ $20 50d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 95¢ $20 50d
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 97¢ $36 52d
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 97¢ $36 53d
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL No 97¢ $34 53d
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY No 98¢ $34 53d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 97¢ $36 53d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 97¢ $36 53d
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 96¢ $33 53d
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 97¢ $33 53d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 761 history records