Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T21:55:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1D
0x1d1f…b254
crypto · 1093 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$1,673 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,672 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,672
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses558 / 534
Whale WR (big bets)89%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1092 / 1093
History coverage153d
Avg bet$74
Trades / day20.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 1 History 1092 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11
7 days−$17
14 days−$56
30 days−$163
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Up 17¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-97%)
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Maddison Inglis Maddison Inglis 5¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Down 39¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Down 34¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Down 32¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Up 58¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Up 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Up 58¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Up 39¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Up 35¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Down 40¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Down 41¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Up 36¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Lyon: Robin Bertrand vs Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo Robin Bertrand 3¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Up 28¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Down 23¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Libema Open: Barbora Krejcikova vs Renata Zarazua Renata Zarazua 4¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Up 42¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Down 40¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Down 66¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Down 60¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
LoL: GnG Amazigh vs FN Esports (BO3) - Arabian League Seeding Phase GnG Amazigh 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Up 37¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Up 23¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Down 16¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$3 +218%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$3 +218%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$3 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$4 +312%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$4 +240%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$4 +312%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$4 +240%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$3 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$3 +228%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$3 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$3 +186%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$3 +186%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$4 +296%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 97% −$1,446
crypto 2% −$158
other 1% −$69
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-18.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 69 -10.6% -19.2% 25% 25% -24.8%
≤30d 715 -8.3% -17.1% 40% 39% -18.8%
≤90d 715 -8.3% -17.1% 40% 39% -18.8%
all 1092 -9.4% -18.0% 51% 34% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover20.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.0% 34% -11.3%
10% ← realistic here -25.8% 30% -19.8%
15% -33.0% 28% -27.6%
20% -39.6% 26% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.03 · official $1.00 (match) · 3500 history records