Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T20:31:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
1D 0x1d1f…2989 other 16 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$25 (-4%) realized −$23 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%8W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day25.9pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 53% +$74
other 47% +$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+20.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +33.5% +20.8% 67% 67% +5.9%
≤30d 12 +33.5% +20.8% 67% 67% +5.9%
≤90d 12 +33.5% +20.8% 67% 67% +5.9%
all 12 +33.5% +20.8% 67% 67% +5.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +20.8% 67% +5.9%
10% ← realistic here +9.2% 58% -4.2%
15% -1.3% 50% -13.5%
20% -11.0% 50% -22.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 40% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +33% · $-wt +15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +37% → late +30% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$32 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.76 per $1 lost it wins $1.76
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized−$23
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses8 / 4
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions4
Markets (closed)12 / 16
History coverage1d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day25.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: England (-1.5) England 63¢ 52¢ $20 $16 −$4 (-18%)
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Panama 58¢ 56¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-3%)
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Ghana? Yes 16¢ 22¢ $6 $8 +$2 (+41%)
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Ghana? Yes 14¢ 12¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 23 $202 +$42 +21%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $51 +$33 +64%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 23 $81 +$48 +59%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $20 +$11 +52%
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) Jun 23 $51 +$31 +62%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $10 −$8 -82%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 2 Senegal? Jun 23 $101 +$27 +27%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $10 +$16 +158%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 23 $101 −$100 -99%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? Jun 23 $5 +$17 +339%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 14¢ $6 1h
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 16¢ $6 1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL Portugal 100¢ $41 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $42 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $42 2h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL Portugal 97¢ $76 2h
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) BUY Panama 58¢ $15 2h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 63¢ $20 2h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 60¢ $51 3h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $129 3h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 62¢ $81 3h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL Portugal 68¢ $90 5h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 69¢ $101 5h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 69¢ $101 5h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 15h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 16h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $20 18h
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) BUY Jordan 61¢ $51 18h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 2 Senegal? SELL Yes 100¢ $128 18h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $26 18h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes 78¢ $101 18h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 70¢ $101 18h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? SELL Yes 37¢ $6 20h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 20h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 25h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Austria 0¢ $0 25h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Austria 0¢ $0 25h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Austria 60¢ $15 28h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.75 · official $45.79 · 34 history records