Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T11:00:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
1D 0x1d20…5b7a politics 123 markets active 0h ago coverage 132d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$37 (-0%) realized −$39 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate16%20W / 102L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$835per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$721now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$4
14 days−$17
30 days−$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 50% −$63
other 34% −$78
sports 14% +$76
world 1% $0
crypto 1% +$2
economics 0% $0
tech 0% $0
finance 0% +$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 21 -0.1% -9.6% 10% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 55 -0.1% -9.6% 5% 0% -9.6%
all 122 -0.2% -9.7% 16% 12% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 12% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 11% -18.2%
15% -26.2% 11% -26.1%
20% -33.4% 9% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,245) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$8 · ×4.68 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$721
Realized−$39
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses20 / 102
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)122 / 123
History coverage132d
Avg bet$835
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 122 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $719 $721 +$2 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 27 $1,586 −$2 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 27 $216 $0 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 27 $453 −$1 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 26 $540 −$1 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 20 $2,722 −$3 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 20 $1,736 −$2 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $530 −$1 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $2,327 −$3 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $2,293 −$3 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $1,848 −$3 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 13 $3,466 −$5 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 13 $2,384 −$3 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $1,268 −$2 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $1,245 −$2 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $4,532 −$5 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $1,398 −$2 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 05 $1,814 −$3 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $1,486 −$1 -0%
Will Solana reach $100 in May? Jun 04 $308 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? Jun 04 $540 +$1 +0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 31 $439 −$1 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $386 −$1 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $462 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 28 $381 −$1 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 27 $588 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $701 −$1 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $1,731 −$2 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 21 $1,079 −$2 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 27 $1,158 −$1 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 22 $2,606 −$3 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 20 $1,212 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $953 −$1 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 17 $1,014 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $1,503 −$2 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $2,447 −$2 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 14 $761 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $1,156 −$1 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 04 $583 −$1 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 04 $397 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 03 $557 −$1 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 03 $1,208 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 02 $1,089 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 02 $637 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 02 $1,432 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 01 $620 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 01 $576 −$1 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 01 $606 −$1 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Apr 01 $45 $0 +0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 31 $1,998 −$2 -0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 31 $471 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $356 19m
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $357 1h
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $216 2h
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $216 4h
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $452 5h
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $453 8h
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $539 26h
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $540 29h
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $520 7d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $521 7d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $572 7d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $573 7d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $529 8d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $530 8d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $371 9d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $371 9d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $719 10d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $845 12d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $846 13d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,073 13d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,075 14d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,144 14d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,146 14d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,166 14d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,168 14d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,266 14d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,268 15d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,243 20d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,245 20d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,184 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $720.81 · official $720.81 (match) · 432 history records