Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T11:36:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1D 0x1d20…4a2e other 57 markets active 2h ago coverage 551d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$72 (-0%) realized −$72 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate20%11W / 43L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$291per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$55now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days+$9
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 82% −$14
politics 9% −$4
other 6% +$7
sports 2% −$63
crypto 1% +$1
world 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 13 -1.2% -10.6% 15% 8% -10.4%
≤90d 45 -5.3% -14.3% 18% 11% -12.8%
all 54 -4.5% -13.6% 20% 9% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.6% 9% -9.9%
10% -21.8% 9% -18.5%
15% -29.4% 9% -26.4%
20% -36.3% 9% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 69% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
55% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$3 · ×1.97 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

551d coverage
Net worth$55
Realized−$72
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses11 / 43
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)54 / 57
History coverage551d
Avg bet$291
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 54 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? No 100¢ 100¢ $26 $26 +$0 (+0%)
Will Solana reach $150 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $7 $0 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $13 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $9 $0 -0%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 09 $10 +$9 +86%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 03 $10 $0 +0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $68 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $10 $0 -0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? May 24 $10 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $10 $0 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 19 $48 $0 -0%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Cleveland Guardians May 18 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 13 $55 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 12 $57 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $55 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $57 $0 -0%
Will Andrey Rublev win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 06 $59 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $60 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $58 $0 -0%
Will Alejandro Davidovich Fokina win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 02 $60 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $59 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $55 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $56 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $54 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 21 $58 $0 -0%
Will Kang Hoon-sik win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 21 $57 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 20 $55 $0 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 19 $55 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $58 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $60 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $56 $0 -0%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 10 $4 +$7 +165%
Sabres vs. Rangers Apr 10 $8 +$6 +72%
Rockets vs. Suns Apr 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Capitals vs. Maple Leafs Apr 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Predators vs. Kings Apr 08 $7 −$7 -100%
Knicks vs. Hawks Apr 07 $9 −$9 -100%
Celtics vs. Hornets Apr 06 $21 −$21 -100%
Maple Leafs vs. Ducks Apr 06 $29 −$29 -100%
Capitals vs. Golden Knights Apr 06 $39 −$39 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in March? Apr 06 $41 $0 +1%
Backpack FDV above $2B one day after launch? Mar 26 $21 +$1 +3%
Golden Knights vs. Jets Mar 26 $23 +$28 +117%
Lakers vs. Rockets Mar 24 $19 +$23 +122%
Will Solana dip to $20 in February? Mar 05 $78 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? Feb 13 $78 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 17 $13,540 −$14 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 in January? Jan 17 $13 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 11 $13 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $8 1h
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $7 25h
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $7 28h
Will Solana reach $150 in June? BUY No 100¢ $20 2d
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $13 5d
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $13 5d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $9 7d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $9 7d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $10 8d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $10 8d
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Houston Astros 53¢ $10 8d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $10 12d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $10 12d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 99¢ $10 13d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 99¢ $10 13d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $10 15d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 15d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 17d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 17d
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? SELL No 100¢ $10 23d
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY No 100¢ $10 23d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 24d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 24d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $26 27d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $48 28d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $48 28d
Cincinnati Reds vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Cleveland Guardians 56¢ $11 32d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $54 34d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $55 34d
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $57 34d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $54.84 · official $54.84 (match) · 189 history records