Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T23:16:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1D
0x1d22…a0d4
sports · 335 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$51 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$50 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$60
Realized−$50
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses27 / 307
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)334 / 335
History coverage648d
Avg bet$66
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%
Chart Positions 1 History 334 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$14
14 days−$24
30 days−$33
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 98¢ 98¢ $60 $60 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $171 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 13 $94 $0 -0%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 13 $58 $0 -0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $55 −$1 -1%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $45 −$1 -2%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 12 $87 $0 -0%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 12 $207 −$3 -1%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 11 $56 $0 -1%
Will Vinícius Jr. win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $43 −$1 -3%
Will Portugal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 11 $61 −$1 -1%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 10 $44 −$1 -3%
Will Norway score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $114 −$2 -2%
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Jun 10 $42 $0 -1%
Will Paraguay reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $61 −$1 -2%
Will a player representing Norway be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FI Jun 09 $47 −$1 -1%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 09 $11 $0 -0%
Will Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 09 $7 $0 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $95 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $162 $0 +0%
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 07 $53 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $104 −$1 -1%
Will Sweden reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $17 $0 +0%
Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 07 $58 −$1 -1%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $128 +$1 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? Jun 06 $43 $0 -0%
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 05 $94 −$1 -2%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $85 $0 -0%
Will Detroit Pistons win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 05 $74 −$1 -1%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $57 $0 -0%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 04 $41 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $86 −$1 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $38 −$1 -2%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $194 $0 -0%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 02 $256 −$2 -1%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $91 −$1 -1%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $117 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $105 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $63 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $50 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $148 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $227 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $157 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 30 $214 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $108 −$1 -1%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 29 $59 −$1 -2%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 29 $42 $0 -0%
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 28 $47 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 28 $278 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 27 $107 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 26 $162 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 32% −$16
sports 31% −$10
other 25% −$16
economics 5% −$1
crypto 3% −$1
culture 2% −$4
world 1% $0
finance 0% −$1
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $60 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $54 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $54 5h
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $60 6h
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $61 13h
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $58 13h
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $58 18h
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 90¢ $55 19h
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 90¢ $55 24h
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 93¢ $42 24h
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 94¢ $42 32h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 97¢ $41 33h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 97¢ $41 41h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 97¢ $56 41h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $57 47h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL No 97¢ $56 2d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 97¢ $56 2d
Will Vinícius Jr. win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 94¢ $42 2d
Will Vinícius Jr. win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $43 2d
Will Portugal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu SELL Yes 96¢ $61 2d
Will Portugal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 97¢ $61 3d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 94¢ $42 3d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 96¢ $44 3d
Will Norway score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 94¢ $66 3d
Will Norway score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $67 3d
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 SELL No 97¢ $42 3d
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 BUY No 98¢ $42 3d
Will Paraguay reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 95¢ $60 3d
Will Paraguay reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $61 4d
Will a player representing Norway be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FI SELL No 93¢ $46 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -1.0% -10.4% 13% 0% -10.3%
≤30d 67 -0.7% -10.1% 7% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 67 -0.7% -10.1% 7% 0% -10.0%
all 334 -0.2% -9.7% 8% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $60.30 · official $60.24 (match) · 1238 history records