Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T11:15:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
1D 0x1d2c…5691 crypto 1687 markets active 0h ago coverage 117d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 116d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$603 (+2%) realized +$603 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate92%1562W / 128L
Drawdown69%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day15.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$183
7 days+$199
14 days+$186
30 days+$253
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$437
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 121 +5.3% -4.7% 95% 17% -4.2%
≤30d 517 +1.7% -8.0% 92% 17% -7.7%
≤90d 1317 +1.1% -8.6% 92% 18% -8.4%
all 1690 +1.0% -8.7% 92% 17% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.7% 17% -8.3%
10% -17.4% 9% -17.1%
15% -25.4% 5% -25.1%
20% -32.7% 4% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$21 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

117d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$603
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses1562 / 128
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1690 / 1687
History coverage117d ⚠
Avg bet$21
Trades / day15.9
Drawdown69%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1690 Trades
no open positions (56 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 21 $0 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 21 $0 −$10 -6194%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 21 $0 $0 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 21 $30 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 21 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 21 $30 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 21 $30 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 21 $31 +$40 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 21 $30 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 21 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 21 $30 +$8 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 21 $30 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 21 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 21 $30 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 21 $30 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 21 $31 +$21 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 21 $31 +$65 +208%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 21 $30 +$5 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 21 $31 +$29 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 21 $30 +$8 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 20 $30 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 20 $30 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 20 $30 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 20 $30 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 20 $30 +$7 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 20 $31 +$12 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 20 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 20 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 20 $30 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 20 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 20 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 20 $31 +$12 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 20 $30 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 20 $30 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 20 $31 +$12 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 20 $30 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 20 $30 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 20 $30 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 20 $31 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 20 $30 +$5 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 20 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 19 $30 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 19 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 19 $30 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 19 $30 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 19 $30 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 19 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 19 $30 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 19 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 19 $30 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $30 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $30 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $30 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $31 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $30 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $30 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $30 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $30 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $30 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $30 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $30 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $31 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $31 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $30 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $31 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $30 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $30 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $30 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $30 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $30 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $30 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $31 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $30 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $30 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $30 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $30 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $30 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $31 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $30 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records