trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | +0.0% | -9.5% | 100% | 0% | -9.5% |
| ≤30d | 13 | +115.3% | +94.8% | 38% | 8% | -9.6% |
| ≤90d | 13 | +115.3% | +94.8% | 38% | 8% | -9.6% |
| all | 24 | +58.6% | +43.5% | 58% | 4% | -10.9% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | +43.5% | 4% | -10.9% |
| 10% | +29.8% | 4% | -19.5% |
| 15% | +17.3% | 4% | -27.2% |
| 20% | +5.8% | 4% | -34.4% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? | No | 92¢ | 92¢ | $47 | $47 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 | Jun 23 | $43 | $0 | +0% |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | Jun 03 | $67 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 30? | Jun 03 | $92 | −$2 | -2% |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? | May 30 | $39 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran leadership change by May 31? | May 30 | $50 | $0 | +0% |
| Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? | May 29 | $49 | $0 | +0% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | May 29 | $37 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? | May 28 | $42 | $0 | +0% |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? | May 28 | $7 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Alberta join the US? | May 28 | $3 | $0 | +0% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? | May 27 | $24 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma | May 26 | $2 | $0 | -7% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | May 26 | $43 | +$1 | +3% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? | Dec 15 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? | Jun 19 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? | May 06 | $1 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister? | May 06 | $8 | −$8 | -100% |
| Will Elon tweet 225–249 times April 18–25? | Apr 24 | $10 | $0 | -1% |
| Will the next Government of Canada be a Conservative majority? | Apr 23 | $9 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by over 12%? | Apr 22 | $10 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2025 World Series? | Apr 19 | $10 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? | Apr 18 | $10 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the Western Conference? | Mar 30 | $11 | $0 | +2% |
| Will the highest temperature in NYC be 48°F or below on March 25? | Mar 25 | $12 | $0 | +1% |