Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T21:16:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1D 0x1d2f…c947 crypto 13 markets active 2h ago coverage 177d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$285 (+22%) realized +$297 · open −$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -62% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -65% what you keep after slip
Net edge-65%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate8%1W / 11L
Drawdown78%max
Avg bet$100per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$13now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$87
7 days−$87
14 days−$87
30 days−$87
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 82% +$404
crypto 15% −$174
sports 3% −$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-65.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 5 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 5 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
all 12 -61.7% -65.4% 8% 8% +6.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -65.4% 8% +6.0%
10% -68.7% 8% -4.1%
15% -71.7% 8% -13.4%
20% -74.5% 8% -21.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -100% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -62% · $-wt +17% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late -100% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1,142 vs −$84 · ×13.53 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.23 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

177d coverage
Net worth$13
Realized+$297
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses1 / 11
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)12 / 13
History coverage177d
Avg bet$100
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown78%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Germany 26¢ 14¢ $25 $13 −$12 (-48%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 29 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 29 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 29 $32 −$10 -32%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 28 $16 −$16 -98%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Mar 10 $335 −$335 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Mar 01 $3 −$3 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Feb 28 $318 +$1,142 +359%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Jan 14 $281 −$281 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31? Jan 12 $110 −$110 -100%
Will Khamenei leave Iran by Friday? Jan 09 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in January? Jan 06 $100 −$100 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Germany 26¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Up 58¢ $43 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $21 2h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 16¢ $16 25h
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? BUY Yes 4¢ $8 111d
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? BUY Yes 9¢ $72 115d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $3 120d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? SELL Yes 96¢ $1,460 121d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? BUY Yes 21¢ $231 166d
Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $20 168d
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 169d
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? BUY Yes 32¢ $3 169d
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? BUY Yes 32¢ $55 169d
Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31? BUY Yes 15¢ $90 169d
Will Khamenei leave Iran by Friday? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 171d
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? BUY Yes 25¢ $47 171d
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? BUY Yes 25¢ $20 171d
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 171d
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? BUY Yes 25¢ $75 171d
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? BUY Yes 25¢ $32 171d
Will Khamenei leave Iran by Friday? BUY Yes 0¢ $3 172d
Will Khamenei leave Iran by Friday? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 172d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? BUY Yes 24¢ $62 174d
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in January? BUY Yes 30¢ $100 174d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.98 · official $12.98 (match) · 37 history records