Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T09:02:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1D 0x1d30…91d6 weather 373 markets active 1h ago coverage 157d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,949 (-11%) realized −$1,945 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate37%135W / 234L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day14.1pace
Fees−$28est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$109now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$15
7 days−$10
14 days−$417
30 days−$886
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 53% −$1,616
world 15% −$137
sports 14% +$243
other 8% −$212
crypto 3% −$383
politics 3% −$105
finance 2% −$21
tech 1% +$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-17.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -8.0% -16.8% 24% 20% -10.9%
≤30d 157 -3.3% -12.5% 34% 29% -18.8%
≤90d 336 -12.0% -20.4% 34% 28% -20.7%
all 369 -9.1% -17.8% 37% 31% -20.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.8% 31% -20.6%
10% -25.7% 27% -28.2%
15% -32.8% 24% -35.1%
20% -39.4% 19% -41.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -7% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$27 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

157d coverage
Net worth$109
Realized−$1,945
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses135 / 234
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$28
Open positions3
Markets (closed)369 / 373
History coverage157d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day14.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 369 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 67¢ 64¢ $67 $64 −$2 (-4%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 44¢ 42¢ $44 $42 −$2 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on June 23? Yes 31¢ 31¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C or higher on June 22? Jun 22 $43 −$43 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 21? Jun 21 $31 −$31 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C or higher on June 21? Jun 21 $64 +$57 +90%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on June 21? Jun 20 $24 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 20? Jun 20 $35 −$33 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on June 20? Jun 20 $16 −$16 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C on June 19? Jun 19 $23 −$16 -70%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on June 19? Jun 19 $35 −$35 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 19? Jun 19 $58 +$142 +248%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 39°C or higher on June 19? Jun 19 $2 −$1 -32%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 18? Jun 18 $26 −$26 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 19? Jun 18 $32 −$5 -16%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C or higher on June 18? Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 18? Jun 18 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 18? Jun 18 $23 +$77 +328%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 17? Jun 17 $24 −$9 -38%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $27 −$19 -69%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C or higher on June 17? Jun 17 $15 +$4 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $29 −$29 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C or higher on June 16? Jun 16 $23 −$19 -85%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 16? Jun 16 $7 −$4 -55%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $42 −$17 -40%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $28 −$6 -23%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $11 +$59 +524%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -85%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $211 −$25 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $35 +$65 +186%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $28 +$24 +88%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 14? Jun 13 $7 −$4 -60%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $23 −$3 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $13 −$10 -76%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $14 +$3 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $30 −$22 -72%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C or below on June 12? Jun 12 $14 −$14 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $25 +$4 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $28 −$28 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $12 −$2 -15%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 11? Jun 11 $24 −$24 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 11? Jun 11 $19 −$14 -73%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $8 −$7 -96%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 10? Jun 10 $26 −$26 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 10? Jun 10 $30 +$70 +238%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND BUY 24¢ $102 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 44¢ $45 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on June 23? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on June 23? BUY Yes 31¢ $0 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $68 2h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C or higher on June 22? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C or higher on June 22? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 16h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C or higher on June 22? BUY Yes 21¢ $14 16h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C or higher on June 22? BUY Yes 21¢ $3 16h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C or higher on June 22? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 16h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C or higher on June 22? BUY Yes 21¢ $0 17h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C or higher on June 22? BUY Yes 21¢ $0 17h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C or higher on June 22? BUY Yes 21¢ $0 17h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C or higher on June 22? BUY Yes 21¢ $0 17h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C or higher on June 22? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 17h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C or higher on June 22? BUY Yes 22¢ $0 17h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C or higher on June 22? BUY Yes 22¢ $0 17h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C or higher on June 22? BUY Yes 22¢ $0 17h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C or higher on June 22? BUY Yes 22¢ $0 17h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C or higher on June 22? BUY Yes 22¢ $0 17h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C or higher on June 22? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 17h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C or higher on June 22? BUY Yes 22¢ $0 17h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C or higher on June 22? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 17h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C or higher on June 22? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 17h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C or higher on June 22? BUY Yes 22¢ $0 17h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C or higher on June 22? BUY Yes 22¢ $3 17h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C or higher on June 22? BUY Yes 22¢ $3 17h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C or higher on June 22? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 17h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C or higher on June 22? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 17h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C or higher on June 22? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $108.97 · official $208.97 · 2412 history records