Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:33:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
1D 0x1d33…4af5 sports 122 markets active 1h ago coverage 63d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
Total PnL −$1,335 (-7%) realized −$1,132 · open −$250
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate52%63W / 58L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$164per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$119est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$628
7 days−$7,301
14 days−$7,301
30 days−$6,119
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% −$1,104
sports 43% −$524
crypto 5% −$278
world 2% +$523
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-18.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 67 -69.3% -72.2% 15% 13% -74.9%
≤30d 79 -49.7% -54.5% 28% 25% -55.5%
≤90d 121 -10.2% -18.8% 52% 50% -14.7%
all 121 -10.2% -18.8% 52% 50% -14.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.8% 50% -14.7%
10% -26.5% 44% -22.9%
15% -33.6% 37% -30.3%
20% -40.1% 24% -37.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +54% → late -73% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$122 vs −$153 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

63d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,132
Unrealized−$250
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses63 / 58
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$119
Open positions1
Markets (closed)121 / 122
History coverage63d
Avg bet$164
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 121 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Down 41¢ 0¢ $24 $0 −$24 (-100%)
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Over 17¢ 0¢ $250 $0 −$250 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Up 70¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Down 52¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 68¢ 0¢ $250 $0 −$250 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Up 21¢ 0¢ $47 $0 −$47 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $244 +$901 +370%
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $262 −$250 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 13 $26 −$24 -92%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $106 +$85 +80%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $262 +$72 +28%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $262 +$82 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 09 $107 −$100 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 09 $51 −$47 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 09 $81 +$270 +333%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 09 $106 −$100 -94%
Manchester City FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 09 $244 −$244 -100%
Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Everton FC: O/U 1.5 Jun 09 $105 −$105 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-02? Jun 09 $107 −$107 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? Jun 09 $485 −$485 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-13? Jun 09 $80 −$80 -100%
Will Athletic Club vs. RC Celta de Vigo end in a draw? Jun 09 $153 −$153 -100%
Will RCD Mallorca win on 2026-04-21? Jun 09 $118 −$118 -100%
AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $170 −$170 -100%
Leeds United FC vs. Burnley FC: O/U 4.5 Jun 09 $22 −$22 -100%
Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Everton FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $106 −$106 -100%
Will Coventry City FC win on 2026-04-18? Jun 09 $96 −$96 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 09 $108 −$108 -100%
Will Como 1907 win on 2026-04-17? Jun 09 $146 −$146 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 09 $30 −$30 -100%
Will ACF Fiorentina vs. US Sassuolo Calcio end in a draw? Jun 09 $42 −$42 -100%
Will Ulsan HD FC win on 2026-04-22? Jun 09 $125 −$125 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 09 $163 −$163 -100%
Will Beşiktaş JK win on 2026-04-27? Jun 09 $128 −$128 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-15? Jun 09 $50 −$50 -100%
Will CA Osasuna vs. Real Betis Balompié end in a draw? Jun 09 $40 −$40 -100%
Will US Lecce vs. ACF Fiorentina end in a draw? Jun 09 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors FC win on 2026-05-13? Jun 09 $1,077 −$1,077 -100%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-04-16? Jun 09 $128 −$128 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-02? Jun 09 $202 −$202 -100%
Will Crystal Palace FC vs. West Ham United FC end in a draw? Jun 09 $50 −$50 -100%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $509 −$509 -100%
Will Pohang Steelers FC vs. FC Anyang end in a draw? Jun 09 $37 +$3 +7%
Will AFC Ajax vs. FC Utrecht end in a draw? Jun 09 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 09 $108 −$108 -100%
Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 09 $123 −$123 -100%
Arsenal FC vs. Fulham FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 09 $98 −$98 -100%
Will AZ vs. FK Shakhtar Donetsk end in a draw? Jun 09 $96 −$96 -100%
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-04-18? Jun 09 $96 −$96 -100%
Will Gamba Ōsaka vs. Fagiano Okayama end in a draw? Jun 09 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-05-13? Jun 09 $1,188 −$1,188 -100%
Will 1. FC Köln win on 2026-04-17? Jun 09 $163 −$163 -100%
Chelsea FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 09 $73 −$73 -100%
Will Rangers FC win on 2026-04-26? Jun 09 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Hull City AFC vs. Birmingham City FC end in a draw? Jun 09 $35 −$35 -100%
Will FC Seoul vs. FC Anyang end in a draw? Jun 09 $195 −$195 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 17¢ $266 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $1,145 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 19¢ $244 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 68¢ $262 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $26 31h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 80¢ $191 2d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $335 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 40¢ $106 2d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $262 2d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $344 3d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 69¢ $262 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $107 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $51 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $351 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $81 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $106 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $54 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $91 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $54 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $30 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $108 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $108 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $145 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $106 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $54 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $108 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $70 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $53 5d
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $87 15d
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $106 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.74 (match) · 243 history records