Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T06:39:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1D 0x1d34…7c14 other 266 markets active 4h ago coverage 572d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ Covers last 572d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$4,108 (-2%) realized −$3,729 · open −$379
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate55%141W / 116L
Whale WR72%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$715per market
Trades / day5.7pace
Fees−$63est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$2,716now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 572d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% +$381
culture 34% +$6,598
politics 8% +$287
sports 8% −$3,062
world 2% −$2,860
weather 2% −$2,863
crypto 0% −$116
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -1.4% -10.8% 40% 40% -24.7%
≤30d 21 -14.9% -23.0% 57% 43% -24.6%
≤90d 43 +7.2% -3.0% 65% 51% -12.2%
all 257 -0.1% -9.6% 55% 37% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 37% -10.1%
10% -18.3% 30% -18.7%
15% -26.2% 21% -26.6%
20% -33.4% 18% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 72% (≥$910) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -12% → late +12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
10.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$255 vs −$324 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

572d coverage
Net worth$2,716
Realized−$3,729
Unrealized−$379
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses141 / 116
Whale WR (big bets)72%
Est. fees paid−$63
Open positions9
Markets (closed)257 / 266
History coverage572d ⚠
Avg bet$715
Trades / day5.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 257 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $413 $664 +$251 (+61%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $510 $535 +$25 (+5%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $492 $473 −$19 (-4%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $372 $350 −$22 (-6%)
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $421 $210 −$210 (-50%)
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $407 $203 −$203 (-50%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $324 $162 −$162 (-50%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $126 $82 −$44 (-35%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 56¢ 68¢ $30 $36 +$7 (+22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $368 $0 +0%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $1,013 −$1,000 -99%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 19 $3,576 +$568 +16%
Will Richard Ríos be in Colombia's Starting 11? Jun 18 $69 +$87 +125%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1,590 −$765 -48%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $907 +$156 +17%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1,113 +$376 +34%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $396 +$99 +25%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $127 −$125 -99%
Will Azerbaijan win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $785 +$138 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 7? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $2,203 +$87 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 7? Jun 07 $60 −$59 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $2,544 +$23 +1%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $501 −$501 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 5? Jun 05 $112 −$103 -92%
Will Bento be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squad list? Jun 02 $27 +$25 +96%
Will João Pedro be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squad Jun 02 $1,565 +$240 +15%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca Jun 01 $1,501 +$30 +2%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $723 +$600 +83%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic May 29 $3,699 −$3,685 -100%
Madrid Open: Joao Fonseca vs Rafael Jodar Apr 27 $3,536 +$312 +9%
Set Handicap: Fonseca (-1.5) vs Cilic (+1.5) Apr 24 $153 +$17 +11%
Will Chaiany Andrade be in the top 3 of Big Brother Brasil 26? Apr 22 $0 $0 +82%
Will Samira Sagr be in the top 3 of Big Brother Brasil 26? Apr 22 $28 +$22 +79%
Will Juliano Floss be in the top 3 of Big Brother Brasil 26? Apr 22 $138 +$100 +73%
Will Milena Moreira be in the top 3 of Big Brother Brasil 26? Apr 22 $443 +$5 +1%
Will Ana Paula Renault win Big Brother Brasil 26? Apr 22 $7,687 +$2,244 +29%
Will Juliano Floss win Big Brother Brasil 26? Apr 20 $83 −$70 -84%
BMW Open: Alexander Zverev vs Flavio Cobolli Apr 18 $150 −$150 -100%
BMW Open: Alex Molcan vs Ben Shelton Apr 18 $500 +$196 +39%
BMW Open: Joao Fonseca vs Ben Shelton Apr 17 $182 +$328 +180%
BMW Open: Alexander Zverev vs Francisco Cerundolo Apr 17 $95 +$44 +47%
BMW Open: Alexander Zverev vs Gabriel Diallo Apr 16 $255 +$22 +8%
BMW Open: Alexander Blockx vs Ben Shelton Apr 15 $211 +$45 +21%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-14? Apr 15 $159 +$51 +32%
Will Gabriela Saporito be in the top 3 of Big Brother Brasil 26? Apr 13 $266 −$245 -92%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Joao Fonseca vs Alexander Zverev Apr 10 $203 +$147 +72%
Will Sarah Andrade win Big Brother Brasil 26? Apr 08 $0 $0 -96%
Will Trump talk to Mark Rutte in March? Apr 06 $316 −$316 -100%
Will Italy qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 01 $130 −$130 -100%
Will Jonas Sulzbach be the next person eliminated from Big Brother Bra Mar 25 $3 +$15 +488%
Will Juliano Floss be the next person eliminated from Big Brother Bras Mar 25 $344 +$70 +20%
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 18, 2026? Mar 19 $1,185 −$12 -1%
Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 18 $301 −$301 -100%
Will Milena Moreira win Big Brother Brasil 26? Mar 18 $96 −$14 -15%
Will "Chalamet" be said 5+ times at the Oscars? Mar 16 $72 +$166 +230%
Will Sean Penn win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 16 $169 −$169 -100%
Will Wunmi Mosaku win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awar Mar 16 $211 −$211 -100%
Will Sentimental Value win Best International Feature Film at the 98th Mar 16 $390 −$390 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $368 4h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $1,013 29h
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? SELL Yes 83¢ $127 2d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? SELL Yes 83¢ $5 2d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? SELL Yes 83¢ $2,401 2d
Will Richard Ríos be in Colombia's Starting 11? BUY No 44¢ $69 4d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 42¢ $825 6d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 79¢ $1,590 6d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 80¢ $715 7d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 20¢ $174 7d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 21¢ $191 7d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 83¢ $1,489 8d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 61¢ $1,113 8d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $5 9d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 9d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $2 9d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $11 9d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $3 9d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $10 9d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 9d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $15 9d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $20 9d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 9d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 9d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 9d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $50 9d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $10 9d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $10 9d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 9d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,716.19 · official $2,716.19 (match) · 3500 history records