Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T21:06:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
1D 0x1d36…ffdf crypto 26 markets active 0h ago coverage 582d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$18 (+3%) realized +$39 · open −$21
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR72%break-even
Win rate72%18W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 582d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% +$18
other 5% −$33
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +72%
net ROI/market (all)+3.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +23.7% +11.9% 78% 78% -3.8%
≤30d 23 +23.7% +11.9% 78% 78% -3.8%
≤90d 23 +23.7% +11.9% 78% 78% -3.8%
all 25 +13.8% +3.0% 72% 72% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.0% 72% -8.7%
10% -6.9% 56% -17.4%
15% -15.9% 36% -25.4%
20% -24.1% 20% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +16% → late +12% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$27 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

582d coverage
Net worth$9
Realized+$39
Unrealized−$21
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses18 / 7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)25 / 26
History coverage582d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Down 41¢ 12¢ $30 $9 −$21 (-70%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 20 $26 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 20 $26 +$5 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 20 $79 −$75 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 20 $26 +$6 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 20 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 20 $52 +$23 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 20 $26 +$8 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 20 $26 +$23 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 20 $26 +$7 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 20 $26 +$11 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 20 $26 +$9 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 20 $26 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 20 $26 +$6 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 20 $26 +$12 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 20 $26 −$20 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 20 $26 +$14 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 20 $26 +$8 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 20 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 20 $26 +$14 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 20 $26 +$13 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$16 +295%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 20 $10 +$15 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 20 $11 −$10 -94%
Super Bowl LIX Winner Feb 09 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Mike Tyson win his boxing match against Jake Paul? Nov 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $5 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $26 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET SELL Down 51¢ $29 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $26 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET SELL Down 53¢ $31 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $26 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $27 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $26 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $26 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $32 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $26 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $26 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $76 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $26 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET SELL Down 56¢ $34 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Up 87¢ $49 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET SELL Down 61¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Down 63¢ $37 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET SELL Down 66¢ $35 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Down 58¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET SELL Up 52¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Down 66¢ $38 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.13 · official $34.71 · 53 history records