Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T21:27:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
1D 0x1d3a…5fad other 78 markets active 2h ago coverage 144d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$682 (+10%) realized +$873 · open −$191
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate53%40W / 36L
Drawdown48%max
Avg bet$89per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$610now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$214
7 days+$261
14 days+$261
30 days+$430
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 69% +$390
weather 20% +$85
crypto 9% −$84
sports 2% +$12
politics 0% +$14
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-32.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -50.4% -55.2% 33% 22% +3.0%
≤30d 13 -13.4% -21.6% 38% 23% +7.4%
≤90d 50 -29.2% -36.0% 48% 26% +1.3%
all 76 -25.3% -32.4% 53% 30% -0.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.4% 30% -0.5%
10% -38.9% 21% -10.0%
15% -44.8% 17% -18.7%
20% -50.2% 12% -26.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt +10% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -29% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$41 vs −$29 · ×1.43 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.59 per $1 lost it wins $1.59
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

144d coverage
Net worth$610
Realized+$873
Unrealized−$191
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses40 / 36
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)76 / 78
History coverage144d
Avg bet$89
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown48%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 76 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 69¢ 52¢ $800 $609 −$191 (-24%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $611 +$322 +53%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $111 −$106 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -94%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Jun 20 $328 +$289 +88%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Jun 20 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Jun 20 $247 −$244 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $565 +$23 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 25 $98 +$423 +433%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 25 $191 −$146 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET May 24 $12 +$1 +10%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 24 $127 −$109 -86%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 22 $38 −$36 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 08 $256 +$198 +77%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 07 $110 −$107 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on May 6? May 06 $310 +$32 +10%
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on May 6? May 06 $17 +$8 +44%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026? May 06 $40 −$23 -56%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 11°C on May 5? May 06 $300 +$9 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026? May 04 $250 +$90 +36%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on May 4? May 04 $96 +$2 +2%
Will there be 3 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldw May 04 $22 +$9 +38%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 14°C on May 3? May 04 $62 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET May 03 $10 −$10 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on May 3? May 03 $94 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET May 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026? May 03 $52 −$47 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET May 02 $5 −$5 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026? May 02 $289 +$14 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 67°F or below on May 1? May 02 $164 +$8 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 24°C on May 1? May 02 $95 +$21 +22%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on May 1? May 01 $258 +$2 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? May 01 $213 +$28 +13%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? May 01 $24 −$14 -60%
Will NYC have between 2 and 3 inches of precipitation in April? May 01 $84 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET May 01 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET May 01 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Apr 30 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Apr 30 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Apr 30 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Apr 30 $1 −$1 -93%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 27 to April 29, 2026? Apr 29 $94 +$14 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Apr 29 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Apr 29 $1 +$1 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Apr 29 $51 +$18 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Apr 29 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Apr 29 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Apr 28 $32 +$17 +53%
Daniil Medvedev vs. Flavio Cobolli: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Apr 28 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 69¢ $812 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 12h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $111 13h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? SELL Yes 88¢ $108 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $2 35h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 63¢ $611 2d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $617 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $3 2d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $3 2d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $13 5d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $247 5d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY Yes 52¢ $328 5d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $565 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $2 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $2 21d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $45 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $2 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $10 29d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $18 29d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $127 31d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $191 31d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $98 31d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $38 31d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $453 45d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $110 46d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? BUY Yes 55¢ $256 46d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on May 6? SELL Yes 100¢ $342 47d
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on May 6? SELL Yes 100¢ $25 47d
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on May 6? BUY Yes 68¢ $17 47d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026? SELL Yes 35¢ $17 47d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $609.69 · official $609.69 (match) · 145 history records