Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:19:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
1D 0x1d3a…af38 world 13 markets active 17h ago coverage 21d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$2,182 (+13%) realized +$3,291 · open −$1,109
Gross ROI / mkt +40% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +17% what you keep after slip
Net edge+17%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate62%5W / 3L
Drawdown7%max
Avg bet$1,325per market
Trades / day6.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$1,052now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$42
7 days+$694
14 days+$786
30 days+$3,267
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 81% +$1,708
crypto 19% +$456
politics 0% −$5
other 0% −$2
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+26.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +8.8% -1.5% 50% 25% -4.6%
≤30d 8 +40.1% +26.7% 62% 50% +10.2%
≤90d 8 +40.1% +26.7% 62% 50% +10.2%
all 8 +40.1% +26.7% 62% 50% +10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +26.7% 50% +10.2%
10% +14.6% 50% -0.3%
15% +3.5% 38% -10.0%
20% -6.6% 25% -18.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 71% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +22% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +40% · $-wt +22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
7.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$708 vs −$91 · ×7.75 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×12.92 per $1 lost it wins $12.92
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$1,052
Realized+$3,291
Unrealized−$1,109
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses5 / 3
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)8 / 13
History coverage21d
Avg bet$1,325
Trades / day6.2
Drawdown7%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June? Yes 16¢ $1,684 $654 −$1,030 (-61%)
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Yes $385 $313 −$72 (-19%)
Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in June? Yes 29¢ 27¢ $77 $73 −$5 (-6%)
GTA 6 launch postponed again? Yes 23¢ 18¢ $12 $9 −$2 (-20%)
Floyd Mayweather vs. Manny Pacquiao 2 Mayweather 63¢ 62¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $94 +$42 +45%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $1,770 −$224 -13%
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $78 −$4 -5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 10 $10,933 +$880 +8%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 03 $312 +$92 +30%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $1,341 +$1,536 +115%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,850 on June 1? Jun 01 $49 −$46 -94%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? May 31 $411 +$990 +241%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes $18 17h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes $30 17h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June? BUY Yes $252 39h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 10¢ $337 39h
Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in June? BUY Yes 29¢ $0 41h
Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in June? BUY Yes 29¢ $77 41h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? SELL No $57 43h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? SELL No $79 43h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No $94 43h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June? BUY Yes 12¢ $265 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 32¢ $183 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 32¢ $493 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 34¢ $158 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 39¢ $29 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 39¢ $42 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 39¢ $221 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 38¢ $421 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 28¢ $4 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 40¢ $40 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 40¢ $29 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 40¢ $3 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 40¢ $2 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 40¢ $2 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 40¢ $4 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 40¢ $2 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 40¢ $44 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 40¢ $64 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 40¢ $80 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 40¢ $80 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 40¢ $1,000 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,051.65 · official $1,051.65 (match) · 144 history records