Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T06:04:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
1D 0x1d3a…4264 crypto 15 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$189 (+12%) realized +$189 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate73%11W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$109per market
Trades / day28.0pace
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% −$189
other 10% +$153
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-7.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +2.7% -7.1% 73% 53% -11.5%
≤30d 15 +2.7% -7.1% 73% 53% -11.5%
≤90d 15 +2.7% -7.1% 73% 53% -11.5%
all 15 +2.7% -7.1% 73% 53% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.1% 53% -11.5%
10% ← realistic here -16.0% 40% -20.0%
15% -24.1% 27% -27.7%
20% -31.5% 13% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 53% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +29% → late -20% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$100 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$189
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses11 / 4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)15 / 15
History coverage1d
Avg bet$109
Trades / day28.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 15 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 23 $203 −$203 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 23 $202 +$26 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 23 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 23 $102 −$77 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 23 $102 +$42 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 23 $102 +$28 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 23 $26 −$19 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 23 $201 +$9 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 23 $103 −$101 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 23 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 23 $101 +$22 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 23 $103 +$69 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 23 $31 +$10 +34%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $96 +$123 +129%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $66 +$30 +46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET SELL Up 28¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $102 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $130 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $102 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET SELL Up 18¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $210 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $101 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $101 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET SELL Down 1¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $103 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $103 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $100 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $124 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $101 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $103 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $25 2h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $96 10h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $96 10h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $66 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 35 history records